Local impacts of Ukraine and the 2020 Census changes
0:11 Chad
Greetings, and welcome to ZacCast, the official podcast for local government nerds of all flavors. I am Chad, that's Pat, and I have got one question for you before we start, Patrick.
0:20 Patrick
What's the question?
0:22 Chad
Why is it that whenever... You're so quick to, like, respond to comments and to jump on me whenever Texas Athletics are struggling, but whenever they're doing well, it's like you ghost me.
0:39 Patrick
So, so here's the thing that, that really... So Chad does this thing to me. I'm gonna explain to everybody what you do, and then I'm gonna explain what my payback for what you do is, and I'm glad that you're realizing what I'm doing, 'cause it's, it makes me so happy. Just in my squishies, so happy, right? All right, so here we go.
0:57 Chad
Let's not talk about your squishies, please.
0:59 Patrick
So that's also a long-term joke that Chad and I have, you know-
1:03 Chad
Let's-
1:03 Patrick
... going back years
1:04 Chad
... yeah, let's just leave it.
1:05 Patrick
Yeah. We'll stay away from that one. But anyways, the, um... So when I am ready to hang up the phone or, like, I get another phone call or something like that, before I can even say goodbye, Chad will not say goodbye, he'll just hang up the phone.
1:18 Chad
You can tell when the conversation is ending-
1:19 Patrick
And even if you... Wait, wait, wait. Even if you sense I'm, like, wrapping up the conversation, it's just a click, and, and you're gone. Right?
1:27 Chad
We've known each other long enough where we don't have to be sensitive about, like, "All right, I'll talk to you later." "Okay, see you, buddy." You know, like, we don't have to do that.
1:35 Patrick
So this does-
1:35 Chad
So as soon as the conversation is done, done
1:37 Patrick
... kinda go back to Chad's, this does kinda go back to Chad's personality of, of slightly antisocial that has become more friendly over time, right? But he has, like, developed this new, uh, I- I would almost call it, like, a phone tic that is just super fast. Like, it's... You, you are gone, man. I... And, and I'll be like, "Chad. Oh, I lost it." You know? So in return for that, any time Chad sends me something via text message that is just innocuous, has no true point, or pokes fun at me for being an Aggie or any of those type of things, I just don't respond. And it annoys the life out of you, and it makes me so happy.
2:25 Chad
It doesn't annoy me as much as I just find it funny.
2:28 Patrick
I always respond to your work stuff, right? Let's just, let's just be clear. I always respond to work stuff, even if I, like, hold back and talk to you on the phone about it, because I'm not a big... I, I don't text as much as you text.
2:40 Chad
That's, that's true.
2:41 Patrick
I really l- I, I like verbal communication-
2:43 Chad
I don't like talking
2:43 Patrick
... or face-to-face communication.
2:45 Chad
Podcasts notwithstanding.
2:46 Patrick
I know. But the reason you brought me along on this fun ride that we have had in life is because you needed a social friend. You needed somebody out there who pushed you. I'm the guy who pushes you. You're also the guy who pushes me in other aspects of my life where I have weaknesses, and I appreciate that as well. Okay, enough of this off talk.
3:02 Chad
Yeah, hang up. I can't hang up the podcast.
3:06 Patrick
What do you, what do you got next?
3:07 Chad
No more squishies. Okay, so-
3:08 Patrick
No more squishies
3:09 Chad
... so there's, uh, some major events in the news right now, which, most of which doesn't have that much to do with local governments, but one element of it does-
3:19 Patrick
Mm-hmm
3:19 Chad
... especially here in Texas. And you wanted to kinda talk about this, so I'm gonna let you introduce this topic.
3:25 Patrick
Let, let's be clear, let's be clear why. So Chad and I both have political science degrees, one from UNT, that would be Chad, mine from the, uh, the Texas A&M University Bush School of Government and International Affairs. So the reason that I'm explaining what's going on in Russia and Ukraine is because my political science degree was just a little more focused on that. Any comment there, Chad?
3:50 Chad
No.
3:50 Patrick
Ah.
3:50 Chad
The reason I kicked it to you is-
3:52 Patrick
If this makes it on the podcast, I'm just-
3:53 Chad
I'll leave it
3:54 Patrick
... I'm... Okay, that's awesome
3:54 Chad
... the reason I kicked it to you is because, um, it's a little bit less directly tied to what we normally talk about, and-
4:03 Patrick
Uh-huh
4:03 Chad
... we're gonna probably have to be a little bit careful about it, so I'm gonna make you be, have that difficult job of introducing it.
4:11 Patrick
So in the grand scheme of things on a, on a, on a world level, the Russian economy is not that large, right? But they make up about 8 to 8.5% of our energy imports.
4:23 Chad
So spoiler alert, you're talking about Ukraine.
4:26 Patrick
We're talking about Ukraine. We're talking about Russia, right? Uh, we're talking about Russia invading Ukraine. Um, I mean, I, I could spend hours on this that have nothing to do with, with our podcast, talking about just from an international standpoint the, the change in the hegemonious relationship and foreign policy-
4:43 Chad
The what?
4:43 Patrick
... and all those different types of things. The, the change in the hegemonious relationship-
4:47 Chad
Okay. I, okay
4:47 Patrick
... within-
4:48 Chad
I thought you dropped a syllable.
4:50 Patrick
Yeah, within... No, no, no. Within foreign policy, um, and, and how some of our foreign policy actions over the years that you could've game theory'd this out years ago and figured out where were we, where we were going to be today. Um, but I, I'm not gonna go into a lot of detail about that.
5:08 Chad
John Nash over here.
5:08 Patrick
I'm gonna talk specifically about... Say what now?
5:11 Chad
Nothing. Go ahead.
5:13 Patrick
Okay. I'm gonna talk specifically about what the, the impact of the sanctions are, are going to be and what they're going to become. I, I mean, obviously there's gonna be impacts to American businesses that have invested. Uh, you know, ExxonMobil has huge investments in, in Russia. Um, you know, they're pulling out of all their investments in those areas. That's gonna have an impact. Uh, but mainly the energy sector is where we're gonna see the largest impact. 8.5% of the imports in the United States from an energy sector standpoint come from Russia. Of that number, I believe it's only 3% comes from, i- is direct from oil. There's a lot of natural gas, uh, and compressed natural gas that comes through there. Um, and, and so, you, what we're going to see is pretty much goods and services at a international side. Because it's... The oil business, even though we have West Texas Intermediate here, which is priced out, and then you have actual oil, oil and gas, uh, that's priced out in Europe, um-It still has a national impact because if the cost of oil goes so high and you can pump it for so much money in the United States and you can send it overseas to make money on it, it's just, you know, look, it's a free market. That oil is going to go wherever the best price is. And so it's going to impact us regardless of whether we're able to just, you know, rely on American oil. And we can become, you know, somewhat energy independent for a multitude of reasons, not just because we can pump more oil and gas, but because we have, you know, moved to more sustainable sources for energy use, and that's beneficial as well. But because of the rise in oil, that has a couple impacts. The biggest one is the ripple that goes through gasoline and the cost of products and the pressures that it places on the economy from an inflationary standpoint. Because, you know, look, I would fill my truck up. It's an F-150. It's got a big tank on it. And I could fill it up for $100, and now it's costing me $160 or $170 to fill that truck up, right?
7:14 Chad
The biggest is your tank.
7:14 Patrick
I have like a crazy – I have a 35 – I have that long 35-gallon tank in my truck.
7:20 Chad
Mine's like 28 gallons.
7:20 Patrick
So like I can drive from – yeah, I can drive from like here to Houston and Houston and back and never get gas. It's the wildest thing in the world. But, you know, that price is going to go for everything, all goods and services that are shipped and that are in trucking and so forth and so on. We're going to see that pickup that occurs. But also I want to talk about areas in the state that have not really recovered from the COVID downturn and the oil and gas downturn when they were kind of packed on top of each other. Kind of a benefit. Like we've talked about Midland. We've talked about Odessa. You know, some of these areas that we have not seen great sales tax increases in. In fact, they've seen huge decreases over the past couple of years. They're going to have an impact from this because the oil and gas business is going to pick up. The rig counts have already picked up significantly from where they were last year, even prior to Russia's invasion. So we're going to continue to see those rig counts pop up. And where I live in Parker County right outside of Fort Worth, it's the wireline capital of the world. So, you know, it's like the Silicon Valley of people who blow up stuff down hole in order to bring oil and gas out, the fracking world. The trucks are everywhere. Like you can just see it. Like there have been trucks sitting on yards for two years that are just-
8:36 Chad
Interesting phrase
8:37 Patrick
... driving and leaving. And what's the interesting phrase?
8:40 Chad
Blowing up stuff down hole.
8:42 Patrick
Yeah, that is a very interesting phrase. But technically that's what it's termed, right? So I just kind of wanted to talk about that, about that impact. You know, yes, we're not at war with Russia, but economically we are going to see a significant impact. And we've already been tracking just the seriously high level of inflation, historic levels of inflation in Zach. And we are going to see additional inflation caused by these international events that we're seeing right now in Europe.
9:21 Chad
Yeah. So the metric we use does not include gas because there's no sales tax on gas. So the quick rise that we've seen over the past even just couple of weeks is not being factored into our inflation metric. But again, like as you mentioned, so many things are made from oil. So as the price goes up, the price of those subsequent goods, that sort of knock-on effects increase the price of those goods at the retail level. So explain a little bit about why the oil and gas booming affects sales tax in West Texas.
10:01 Patrick
Mainly because when it booms and when the rig count goes up, those towns, the population in those towns goes up significantly.
10:13 Chad
Yep.
10:13 Patrick
Right? So you throw rigs on the ground. You have to have crews with those rigs. You have to have, you know, well completion crews and frat crews and everybody else is associated with a rig that goes out there. Plus you have to have the pipeline folks. Everyone has to have a hotel to stay in.
10:31 Chad
They have to eat. They have to have a latrine.
10:32 Patrick
Everyone has to have restaurants to eat at. Yeah. Everyone has to have, you know, the water cooler and the bar, right? So those towns will see a dramatic increase in their population. Now they live that boom or bust cycle all the time. They're used to it. But it's been a pretty big bust for the last couple years.
10:54 Chad
It preceded COVID by almost a year.
10:57 Patrick
Yeah. And then they got hit with COVID and had down over down years, right? I mean, it wasn't like they found the bottom or they were in a U-shaped curve. I mean, it was like a straight down, down over down, and they never found the bottom really. And so now this may be what finds the bottom for them, but it's still a boom-bust cycle, and it's not sustainable long-term, you know, unless we have some major changes in energy policy that, you know, becomes, you know, national security related. Who knows? But I think what we're seeing right now is already hitting at the gas pump, already seeing rig counts go up, talking to a lot of people here that work in the industry. People are paying gobs of money to put drilling crews on the ground. And so you'll see a transition of a lot of people who got out of that field who are going to be back in that field just because of what the pay dollar is going to be.
12:00 Chad
I appreciate your sort of Monty Python approach to this.
12:04 Patrick
Yeah. I'm not sure what that really means. I've watched Monty Python.
12:08 Chad
Always looking at the bright side of life.
12:11 Patrick
Well, I mean, look, there are lots of negative sides of, you know-The Russian invasion of Ukraine, will they stop at Ukraine? Most people don't understand, but, you know, Poland is actually in the middle of two Russian parts of Russia, right? Um, and Russia has always had this dream of having a land bridge. Um, none of what Putin is saying now is any different than what Putin said in, uh, 2009, right? The, the difference is, is that he felt the ability to do it and not be punished. You know, and, and I, I hate to say that we should treat foreign countries like bad children. Um, but traditionally in American foreign policies post-World War II, that's what we've done. Um, and, and, and I'm, I'm not saying that the sanctions have not been extremely beneficial. I mean, the ruble is basically worthless at this point, right? I mean, it... They, they can't get to any of their foreign currency reserves. Um, the President just announced that the United States is cutting off all Russian oil and gas imports in the United States, so, um, I saw that coming. So I got gas this morning and filled my tank up, 'cause it's probably gonna inch up another 20 or 25% based on that news. Eventually, the market will regulate to what is actually the market disruption. Right now we're in a little bit more of a, um, I wouldn't say panic, I don't think it's a panic, but we're in a little bit more of a run-up, a social run-up in, in oil and gas contracts.
13:42 Chad
Sort of an artificial constraint.
13:43 Patrick
It's a little artificial. It's not all artificial, but it is a little artificial at this point. Um, and, and so I, I, I just think it's gonna be very interesting to see what's going on in Ukraine. Um, my biggest concern in Ukraine is that there does not seem to be an off-ramp for the Russians. Uh, they're very surprised at the stiff, uh, fighting in Ukraine, uh, how well-trained the Ukrainian army is. Um, but if you've read anything or, or, or paid attention since the, since the invasion in 2014 of Crimea, the United States has been actively on the ground in Ukraine training their forces, as have our European partners, as has Canada, um, the Brits, and the Australians. Uh, and a number of their commanders and generals, um, since 2014 have attended the United States War College, which is, you know, the premier war university in the world. Um, and they're smart, and they have weapons. They, they may not have air superiority, uh, but they have the weapons to try to keep it at bay. And I, I don't think the Ukrainians are gonna go down easy. Um, you know, I was a little worried when this started that it could be a little more like Afghanistan, where we think they're gonna prop up and we say they're gonna prop up, but they may not. Um, you know, kudos to Zelensky, to President Zelensky in, in Ukraine and, and what he has done. Um, but the biggest issue with all of that is what is, what is the ability from a foreign policy standpoint for Russia to get a win, um, without digging deeper? And does digging deeper mean that Moldova's next or Georgia's next, or the Baltics, which are NATO allies, or Poland? Um, it's just, it's a, it's a major concern for me from a military standpoint, um, and as a country. You know, I cross my fingers that we don't get there, but, um, I just don't... The Ukrainians are not going to give up sovereign territory. Maybe Crimea they'll negotiate on, but the Donetsk region, region, um, that is traditionally seen as Ukraine politically. It, it, it's, it's not ambiguous like Crimea is. Uh, I just don't know how Russia gets a win there. Um, and the stories that are filtering out from Russian military sources about what the Russian military thought they were invading for is very scary, extremely fascist. Um, and, you know, it's, it just, it, it, it kinda reeks of the '30s in Europe right now. Um, when I say '30s, like the 1930s. So I don't know, can I put it any, uh, worse case than, than that? Sorry.
16:35 Chad
Okay. So the impact on oil and gas could potentially aid our friends in the West Texas area who have struggled for a while.
16:43 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
16:43 Chad
But what about everyone else?
16:47 Patrick
It is going to be another inflationary measure that we're going to have to take into account because oil is in so many products. It's in the computer keyboard that I tap on. It's in the pen that I'm holding in my hand right now. Um, you know, it's, it's in so many different products that you're going to see a ripple effect, not just because of shipping, but also because of the, the chemical relatedness of, of petroleum in general. And, um, we're, we don't know what that impact's gonna be yet. We have not really ever seen what we're seeing now from a historic increase. Um, you know, the, the rule of thumb, at least in my economics classes, and I've seen a couple economists talked about, talk about this, but when energy, uh, becomes more, uh, than, like, four and a half percent of consumer spending, that's, like, a really kind of scary number that could claw back on consumer spending in other areas and, and have a negative impact. And, and we're approaching north of 4% at this point with where the, uh, cost of oil and gas and gasoline in general is. You know, in Texas we kinda just hit four bucks. Um, but in places, you know, on the w- west and east coast, you know, they're hitting s- six bucks a gallon, uh, upper fives and six bucks a gallon. So, um, at what point do we start to see, okay, hey, there's this, there's this boost in sales tax, but then we start seeing a decline in other spending areas, um, that are taxable, right, that will have a, an impact? Discretionary spending could get very interesting.Uh, we could solve the supply train- chain crisis just by raising the cost of oil. I say that offhand, but-
18:26 Chad
Tongue in cheek, because people will-
18:28 Patrick
Yeah
18:28 Chad
... buy fewer things? Yeah.
18:29 Patrick
People buy fewer things, and the supply chain can finally catch up.
18:32 Chad
Well, thank you then for taking my, uh, my half-hearted comment and totally flipping it on its head and making everyone feel super depressed. I appreciate that.
18:43 Patrick
I- well, I mean, from a sales tax standpoint, you know, what type of recovery are we going to have? Is it going to be a V? Is it gonna be a U? Um, you know, what does that look like? I, I, I, I, I say this word because it, it could possibly happen for a short period of time because of the geopolitical conversations that are occurring and the things that are happening. Um, but if energy prices continue to rise and get above that four and a half percent of individual spending power, we should expect a recession. We should expect some downturn that's gonna happen at some point. So I say that ahead of time.
19:16 Chad
Well-
19:16 Patrick
I think I'm a little early with that conversation. If this continues, and if we get bogged down in Ukraine, and if we continue clamping down, I, I would say we would have a true multiple quarters recession. The market's down, I mean, since January right now- ... typical market indexes are down 10%, 11%.
19:35 Chad
Don't even look at it anymore.
19:37 Patrick
Yeah, so don't check that 401 , folks. Uh, you know, it, I mean, it, it is what it is. Like, that's, that's the situation we're in, and, and, um, the crazy thing about the United States right now is that both sides of the aisle agree on where we're at. That's the weird thing. So-
19:53 Chad
In like 20 years.
19:55 Patrick
It's been a long time, right? It's been a long time as a nation where we've been smacked in the mouth by something that's happening on the world stage, and both sides agree on, on what's going on. Um, it's also a little bit scary because it's, um, it's empowered our, our foreign policy where it hasn't been empowered in the past probably 20 years as well. Um, I mean, really probably since the, the Bush presidency, the last Bush presidency. Um, and, and I'm curious to see how aggressive we get in our foreign policy posture, and if we kinda regain that, um, kinda stance that we used to have where, um, Russia may not have ever done this 20 years ago from that standpoint. Last thing I'll say on this whole thing, the most surprising thing to me about what we're seeing right now is really just the, the lack of, uh, effectiveness of the Russian military. That to me has been extremely surprising. So, um, and, and it also once again puts Putin in a position where he doesn't have a great off-ramp. He can't lose it. If he loses, he loses power, right? Um, and he's convinced his people that there are Nazis in Ukraine, uh, through, you know, basically fascist propaganda. And so where, where does he find a way out without just continuing forward? Uh, really worries me. That's all I got. Let's talk about something different, Chad.
21:34 Chad
Okay. Act two on today's episode, um, social scientists are very worried about the quality of data in the 2020 census.
21:44 Patrick
So-
21:44 Chad
You had not heard about this until, until, uh, just about-
21:47 Patrick
I-
21:47 Chad
... 30 minutes ago, so
21:48 Patrick
30, 30 minutes ago you sent me this text for this article, uh, that we should throw in the show notes for sure, 'cause it's very detailed with information. Go ahead and, and, and try to run us through exactly what this is saying. Like, what is in the data? What is wrong with the data? What did they try to do, and how did they fail?
22:05 Chad
Very briefly, um, because the, m- much like the last topic, the effects on local governments are kind of second order.
22:13 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
22:13 Chad
Um, but it is something that cities should kinda be aware of as far as, um, how this new census and potentially the ACS, the American Community Survey, will be updated. Um, so as many of you probably know, the ability of people to de-anonymize large data sets is somewhat, uh, shockingly good. And especially over the past, like, 30-plus years, there have been a lot of, uh, a lot of research and a lot of examples of, you know, what the article mentions, taking, um, Netflix reviews and kind of finding out a lot of information about individuals, or, um, looking at supposedly anonymized health records and identifying individuals in those records. And as com- computing power increases, as, uh, p- as people find more and more value, uh, like monetary value in de-anonymizing that data, the census has a concern that-
23:12 Patrick
And Facebook.
23:14 Chad
Yeah. Thank you.
23:15 Patrick
Yeah.
23:15 Chad
Um, the Census Bureau has a concern that people will be able to de-anonymize data, specifically at the smaller, um, you know, like census tract level. There are some census tracts that have very, very few numbers of residences, right? So if you're looking at population data, income data, demographics like that, it could theoretically be somewhat easy to identify, at least in some cases, um, individuals who... and how they answered certain questions.
23:43 Patrick
At the block level, right?
23:45 Chad
Yes. Sorry. I-
23:45 Patrick
At the census block level
23:46 Chad
... I've been saying, I've been saying tract. Yes, the block level.
23:48 Patrick
At the block level.
23:49 Chad
Yeah. So, um, so what they have done is, especially for these smaller census blocks, is they've added noise to the data. So they take some answers from here and add them over here, and vice versa. And so when you get to the really, really granular level, the data is largely not accurate. But as you kinda zoom out, those additions and subtractions can balance out theoretically. So you get to a higher picture, you get more and more accurate. But when you get down to a lower level-Not so much. And the problem is that this essentially means that a lot of social science research that relies on census data can no longer be performed, um, which is important for things like how is this policy working, you know. We're spending all this money on housing, for example, or education policy, and how's it working? Well, we don't really know anymore. And especially if this goes into the ACS, which is the, the rolling five-year survey that provides updated information between censuses, which most cities rely very heavily on-
24:56 Patrick
And-
24:57 Chad
... that's a real problem
24:58 Patrick
... and the dig deep data that ACS provides that doesn't necessarily-
25:02 Chad
They provide really deep data
25:03 Patrick
... really deep data that's not in the typical census.
25:08 Chad
Yeah.
25:08 Patrick
So-
25:10 Chad
So, so one example in this article, which I encourage everyone to read because it's- it's- it's important to understand what's going on and what's happening, but, um, they found a census block that had one house in it about, we'll say, four blocks n- away from the White House. The 2020 data showed 14 residents, including just a melting pot of ethnic and racial diversity in this one residence. And, uh, the author of the article managed to get in touch with the owner of the house, of the residence, uh, or the, you know, whoever's living in it, and there were five people, all of the same race, like just, it's just a family living there. But if you were to look at the census data, not only is it almost three times more population, but the ethnic and racial diversity is just off the charts and not at all what it actually is. Um, so the interesting thing about this is it's not coming from the legislative side, it's coming from the administrative side. They're the ones that are concerned about de-anonymizing the data. I've seen a lot of people arguing or providing and rebutting some of the arguments about it, and I mean, I'm a privacy advocate, but I'm convinced that this is doing more harm than good after having kind of read through some of these articles and some of the arguments. So one of the arguments is that you can kind of pair this, pair the census data with commercial data sets and, and identify individuals. But if the data... That data's already available, right? If, if it's in a commercial data set, you can already buy it, so you don't need the census data.
26:42 Patrick
Uh-huh.
26:42 Chad
And so, so it's really a cost-benefit question. Are you losing the ability to do actual valuable research, um, that, you know, that we've had for generations, because the census is, is... we've taken it since seven- what, 1790? Um, so are you losing this, this ability to track changes over time and to do actual detailed statistical research? Um, but a lot of the pushback is coming from the fact that this is an administrative decision and not coming from, you know, a legislature.
27:14 Patrick
Yeah, the, the administrative side is-
27:15 Chad
Or actually coming from Congress
27:15 Patrick
... the, the administrative side is saying that there's a law in place that says that it has to be anonymous, right?
27:20 Chad
Mm-hmm.
27:20 Patrick
And so they're saying, "Well, in order to keep it anonymous with today's world of computing power, this is what we have to do." The problem with what they're doing is it has a 62% error rate, and what I mean by that is when they went and pooled the information, when they looked at the reconstructed data and specifically looked at what it would match in the real world and tested it, 54% of that data was incorrect, and then 62% is, is where they're saying that it's, it, the re-identified records were just flat out wrong. Right? So-
27:59 Chad
So the census can't rebuild its own data set, basically.
28:01 Patrick
That's, that's correct. So they... So the question is, is when, when the census becomes public record, and it is public data, I can't remember how many years it has to be, but it's so many years they, they will release census data. That's why you can go back and, like, look at your relatives who came to New York from Ireland at some point, right? My people. Um, but the, the reality is, is that the census, they, they are unable to go back and rebuild the information, so we have a gobblygoop of census data from the 2020 Census, and there's a concern that that information's not right. Let's talk about demographic information. So if the census randomized races and ages and, uh, genders for folks in order to not be identified, then how in the world did we just build political maps? And how in the world are those political maps that are being challenged based on population and race-
28:59 Chad
At the block level
28:59 Patrick
... ethnicity at the block level, how is that valid data at all if 62% of that data can't even be reconstructed correctly? I, I, that's, that's the concern, right? That, you know, looking at this information... A- and it's not just that. It's also, you know, let's talk about, uh, CDBG funds that cities spend, and they have to spend them in very specific census blocks. Um, and you know what, a city goes and depends on that 2020 census data for that block to do that. Are they still going to meet the federal standard for that? I mean, there's just, there's so many questions that revolve around what the census has to be for communities. There... I just don't think people truly understand that it is kind of a baseline that everybody works off of for the next 10 years.
29:50 Chad
Yeah. And of course, the article recommends probably the, the easiest solution, which is to get rid of single, get rid of blocks that have, you know, one household or, you know, small blocks. Just merge them into other, uh, census blocks so that you don't have that issue.
30:04 Patrick
Seems like a simple solution. In fact, the attorney that they quoted in here was, i- is just one of my favorite quotes, and, um, roll- rolling back to look at what her quote is, let me, let me call her out. And, and first off, if you are an attorney that, uh, works in the census world, that seems like a really boring practice.Like I'm a, I'm an attorney. So the attorney is, she's a legal scholar from the University of Arizona, um, Jane, uh, Bambauer, and she said to her, the new privacy protections, quote-unquote, that the Census Bureau had put in place seemed like a solution in search of a problem. Great quote.
30:47 Chad
Yeah, we do that a lot-
30:48 Patrick
We do
30:48 Chad
... in government.
30:49 Patrick
We do. We, we find a reason to make things difficult, and so the question is, is that, uh, you know, the easiest solution is exactly what you said, Chad, is just merge small blocks with other blocks, and make sure that you have a minimum size that can't, you can't break into the anonymity based on the size.
31:06 Chad
Well, I mean, there's no guarantee that you couldn't still. Question is, um, what is the, what is the practical harm, and is... I mean, a lot of the ex- or a lot of the, the arguments are, well, this could be used for redlining. Redlining came about because of federal policy.
31:24 Patrick
Yep.
31:24 Chad
Right? And so-
31:26 Patrick
Explain what redlining is real quick.
31:28 Chad
Redlining was the practice-
31:29 Patrick
It's been all over the news in DFW, but
31:31 Chad
It was the practice, um, that came about during the Great Depression and the re- response to it that, um, essentially limited the ability of certain neighborhoods, largely Black and, um, minority neighborhoods, from having access to loans for things like mortgages and things like that. And so i- in fact, we've pulled in the old redlining data to our property tax system, and it's interesting to go back and look at how it affected reinvestment in some of those areas.
32:02 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
32:02 Chad
It was a problem. Um, and it was a problem of federal policy and private action working together in a very awful way. Um, but the idea that all of a sudden now th- this is gonna happen again because census data can theoretically be reconstructed, um, again, it does seem like a solution in search for a problem at this point.
32:28 Patrick
Where does the responsibility of the Census Bureau stop, right? 'Cause one of the things they go into is that, you know, you could take this data set, and you could figure out who the people are, right, from that data set. Is it the responsibility of the Census Bureau to, uh, protect against outside data being used for that? I mean, like a Netflix review.
32:48 Chad
I, no, how can you do that?
32:49 Patrick
I, exactly. That's... Like, where does that sto- Like, people provide so much of their information out there, right, that based on IP address or the cookie or whatever that may be, they're gonna know who you are any-
33:02 Chad
Think about, think about your ISP, who can tra- unless you use a VPN, is tracking every single request that you go to.
33:10 Patrick
Yeah.
33:10 Chad
Every single website you go to, every single movie that you watch on Netflix, you know, they get, at least they can have the ID number of it. They... I, I don't know what the URLs are that Netflix uses, but that gets sold already.
33:22 Patrick
Correct.
33:22 Chad
Which is why you should use a VPN. But, uh, and also you should change your DNS servers to, um... I'll, I'll put a note in here. Okay, you, you wanna get a little bit nerdy?
33:32 Patrick
Yeah, go.
33:33 Chad
Okay.
33:33 Patrick
Go ahead.
33:33 Chad
Okay.
33:33 Patrick
Let's, let's jump into this, nerd.
33:35 Chad
Okay. So a VPN is a server that you connect to that is a middleman between yourself and the public internet, okay? So it's, uh, there are just server farms, and you connect to it. It routes all your internet traffic through that server somewhere else. So your ISP is seeing a ping to this VPN server. They're not seeing that you went to Google. They're not seeing that you went to TexAgs, right? Um, that just... You didn't even, didn't even respond to that one.
34:02 Patrick
I heard the TexAgs comment, yeah. Go ahead.
34:06 Chad
So, um, it's important-
34:07 Patrick
Like I said, I don't respond to it.
34:09 Chad
I know.
34:10 Patrick
Yeah.
34:10 Chad
So if you're gonna use a VPN, they're really simple to use. You basically just install an app, connect. I use it almost all the time. Um, they can even integrate into your, like, phone's, uh, operating systems so that they can be, um, used that way too. Make sure that you choose one that's trustworthy, not one that is sort of a fly-by-night or gonna sell your data because it kinda defeats the whole purpose. Um, the second thing is that whenever you go to google.com, for example, you type that into your address bar, your computer has to know what the IP address is of Google's server, and all you're giving it is the domain name. So there is a, an entire system where, that maps the domain name to the IP address-
34:53 Patrick
Mm-hmm
34:53 Chad
... of the actual server. And this data is just as valuable. Every time you go to any website, uh, it will hit a DNS server. That includes going to google.com, but it also includes any images that are loaded, any spreadsheets, I'm not, I'm sorry, any style sheets or any JavaScript. Any, any files that are loaded as a result of that one r- web request, they all have to go through these DNS servers. So, um, the DNS server can also keep logs of what is being requested and the IP address that's requesting it, right?
35:26 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
35:26 Chad
So not only does your ISP, who you're getting internet from, have access to that, but these DNS servers do too, and a lot of your ISPs, that's kinda, that's where they make their money. But, um, so I would recommend using, uh, 1.1.1.1. I believe it's Cloudflare, uh, that they have their own DNS system. It's super fast. Cloudflare is a company that provides, like, um, caching for websites all over the world, so they have nodes everywhere so that you're hit... You know, you go to a website, and you're hitting, uh, you're actually hitting Cloudflare servers typically, um, and getting something a lot closer to you than where that server might have been. They have their own privacy-focused DNS, uh, system that is very fast, and they don't keep logs of anything. So combination of those two things is helpful for helping to... But, but then you talk about, like, every single website that you ever go to is probably in some database with some marketing company or on the dark web, like-
36:26 Patrick
It's just in today's, in today's world it's a very antiquated law to try to protect people from that anonymity.
36:32 Chad
Yeah, like the cat's out of the bag, man.
36:33 Patrick
With the, with the use of the outside sources, it's just, it is what it is, right? They're gonna know that I live at this address. There's just no way to get around that. Um, and even if you put in place VPNs and DNS and, uh, what was that Will Smith movie? Like where the guy had, like, the tinfoil hat. You know what I'm talking about?
36:51 Chad
Enemy of the State?
36:52 Patrick
Enemy of the State, yeah.
36:53 Chad
Yeah.
36:53 Patrick
Where they, like, tracked, you know, Will Smith. Like, it... The, the reality is is that all of those things, where you go, where you eat, where you go to work, where you shop, all of that is tracked.
37:05 Chad
Not only is your credit card company tracking it, but the restaurant is tracking it.
37:09 Patrick
Correct, 100%.
37:10 Chad
Like, right? They're stor- they're storing-
37:11 Patrick
Yeah
37:11 Chad
... your credit card number.
37:12 Patrick
They're storing your credit card number.
37:14 Chad
Target notoriously, um, sent out marketing material to people, like maternity marketing, marketing material.
37:21 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
37:21 Chad
Just based on, uh, their searches on their website and, like, the first couple of things that they bought, they could figure out that you were pregnant probably before you even told your family.
37:32 Patrick
So here, here is the crazy thing for me that I have not seen happen yet. Like, when I go sit down at Uncle Julio's every Sunday for lunch, right? They have not figured out that I'm there every Sunday, to me.
37:45 Chad
Oh, I can guarantee you that our... The restaurant where we go have brunch, uh, uh, on the weekends-
37:50 Patrick
Mm
37:50 Chad
... they know that we go there all the time because we have the-
37:53 Patrick
Is that because you take the f-
37:54 Chad
... four kids
37:55 Patrick
... four kids? Yeah. So, uh, you're, you remember, uh, you know, I'm sure he doesn't do this anymore, but when your, when, when one of your children was really small, I'm not gonna give names or, or genders, try to keep that anonymity, um, they would not like to sit at the same table with y'all. Like, those pictures-
38:14 Chad
Oh, yeah
38:14 Patrick
... were priceless-
38:15 Chad
Yeah
38:16 Patrick
... to this day.
38:16 Chad
Yeah. I don't mind saying he, he would go off to a booth behind us.
38:19 Patrick
Yeah.
38:20 Chad
Just to sit by himself.
38:21 Patrick
So-
38:22 Chad
Um, yeah, I-
38:22 Patrick
... it worked out pretty well though, 'cause you kinda got, like, little date nights where he just left you alone.
38:26 Chad
Kind of. So I had a, a funny incident. This is actually is a good segue. So today, this morning, I had my very first experience with him not wanting to, like, be with me, right? Which is kinda hard, 'cause when, when they're young they just love you. They want to spend every minute with you.
38:43 Patrick
You mean, like, at school drop-off? Like-
38:44 Chad
Yes.
38:45 Patrick
Yeah, don't dr- Okay. All right. Yeah.
38:46 Chad
Yeah. Okay, so, like, I don't do things to irritate him or, like, annoy him or embarrass him. And, uh, I will when he's older, but right now I won't, I don't do that. Um, but we had three cycles through the stop sign which, oh my gosh, we can... The traffic out here. Come on, Fort Worth. Get it together.
39:07 Patrick
We love you. We love you, Fort Worth.
39:09 Chad
Um, they added two stop signs-
39:11 Patrick
Uh-huh
39:11 Chad
... that do no good, because there's only bad, there's only bad traffic in that area that prevents people from turning onto the main road for, like, 30 to f- 40 minutes a day. So now everyone has to stop all day long. S- solution in search of a problem. But then we got stuck at the, uh, stoplight for three cycles. There was a train. It was just a nightmare of delays. So we got to school late, so I had to walk him, you know, to the front door. And as we get out of the car and start walking, we notice that a lot of the parents are just, like, dropping their kids off at the front, and their kids are walking to the front door. And I was like, "Wow." Like, I've never been late with him, so I was like, "I thought we had to walk you to the front door." And he just kinda looks at me. Doesn't say anything, just looks at me. And I'm like, "Do you want me to walk you to the front door?" And he just looks at me. I'm like, "Do you want me to just let you go so you can walk with your friends?" He goes, "Yeah." All right.
40:02 Patrick
So I was-
40:03 Chad
Flashbacks to being at the mall with my parents and, like, walking 30 feet in front of them so that no one would know I was with my parents.
40:08 Patrick
Yeah, so if my boys don't give me a hug and a kiss when I drop them off at school in the morning, I roll the window down and I yell really loud that I love them. They give me a hug and a kiss before they get out of that truck every single time. But I am gonna be that dad who, you know, like, annoying as I'll get out, wait in line 10 cars back, and, you know, one of my kids is there, I'll just scream his name as loud as I can. You know, stuff like that. Like, that's, that's me. I, I just-
40:32 Chad
Yeah. I don't mind being an embarrassing parent. Uh, he... It just doesn't affect him as much yet because he just doesn't get embarrassed by it.
40:39 Patrick
My son will be waltzing in his spring choir concert. This is gonna be-
40:43 Chad
Oh
40:43 Patrick
... quite fun to watch. So he's very excited about waltzing in his choir concert.
40:49 Chad
I hope he has his rhythm from his mom.
40:52 Patrick
He's got the feet of a baseball player, if that means anything.
40:54 Chad
Okay.
40:54 Patrick
I don't know. But yeah, I hope he gets his rhythm from his mom too.
40:56 Chad
Well, it depends. Is he an Aggie baseball player, or is he a Texas baseball player? 'Cause-
40:59 Patrick
So we're, we're gonna, we're gonna go down-
41:00 Chad
... there is a difference
41:01 Patrick
... if, if anybody's there, any of our Zach listeners are there- ... I'll be at the U of H Aggie baseball game, uh, on, over spring break. Um, we're gonna go down and, and see some Aggie baseball, but that is my favorite Aggie sport though, so stop hating on my favorite sport.
41:13 Chad
Oh, no, baseball is my favorite sport too.
41:14 Patrick
Yeah.
41:15 Chad
Um-
41:15 Patrick
Is there some reason you think your team's gonna go to the World Series? Let's put it on the record right now.
41:19 Chad
Oh, yeah, I think they're gonna... Well, they will definitely make Omaha, for sure.
41:22 Patrick
So Texas is definitely gonna make Omaha.
41:25 Chad
Oh, yeah.
41:25 Patrick
Y'all heard it here. They're gonna get through their Super Regional. They'll probably host the Super Regional-
41:30 Chad
Oh, yes
41:30 Patrick
... I guess. Right? They're gonna get through it, and, uh, and they're gonna go to Omaha. Are they ever gonna join the SEC?
41:37 Chad
At some point, yeah.
41:37 Patrick
Or is this just, like, a trick?
41:38 Chad
No. Eh, at some point. Okay. So real quick, to wrap up, if you are not interested in listening to me rant, you're welcome to, to sign off. Thank you for listening. Um, but we got feedback on one of my rants about school supplies. Um, and I, I won't say who. Uh, I'll, I can tell you offline. But I asked you the other day how many fundraisers your kids get.
42:04 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
42:05 Chad
And y- uh, it appears that my kids get a lot more fundraisers than you. We have, we basically have a nonstop... Like, a s- before this one is done, there's a new one that's c- that's starting. And some of them are for PTA, but a lot of them are just, like, for the school. And I th- I have no problem if you have an organization like choir, band, athletics, whatever, and you wanna do fundraisers. I don't have a problem with that. I don't understand the fundraisers for the school
42:35 Patrick
Because they're a publicly funded entity
42:37 Chad
... what am I paying taxes for? I have to buy supplies that go into a pool that everyone else can use. Now I have to... And the things that you get are so ridiculous. So one of them was a limo ride, and if you raise a certain amount of money, then you get to go on a limo ride. It was a limo ride around the parking lot of the school. It was maybe three minutes.
42:59 Patrick
Yeah.
43:00 Chad
When we asked, uh, our son how he liked it, he was like, "Eh, it was okay." Like, do you know how much effort we put in? But if everyone, if everyone is posting these fundraisers or bringing them to work, and everyone's contributing to everyone else's fundraiser, like, what is the point?
43:17 Patrick
So-
43:19 Chad
And why can't you just pay, charge me in taxes for what you need so I don't have to spend $150 so my kid can have a silly string party?
43:29 Patrick
So I guess my question would be, o- one, there is a, there is a significantly sized for-profit industry out there-
43:37 Chad
Exactly
43:38 Patrick
... in, in the fundraising space of schools.
43:40 Chad
It is a racket.
43:41 Patrick
Right. And I'm gonna be careful to say names, 'cause some of those names are in cities that we, we serve. Um, but whether it is a, a, a fall fundraiser, a spring fundraiser, um, you know, raising money for an association of some kind, medical association of some kind, um, or a book fair, you know. That's, that's... Those are the four that we have. We kinda have a fall fundraiser that's-
44:06 Chad
I don't mind the, I don't mind the book fairs, because the books are basically retail priced, and you're buying books.
44:11 Patrick
Yeah, so our, our fall one is-
44:12 Chad
I'm with that
44:13 Patrick
... like cookie dough and wrapping paper. And I, I will tell you, my wife would die if she didn't have the wrapping paper fundraiser. She loves that wrapping paper.
44:22 Chad
It's so expensive.
44:24 Patrick
It is, but it's nice wrapping paper, Chad.
44:26 Chad
You can get nice wrapping paper at Target.
44:28 Patrick
Yeah, but we... Like, at Christmas, you know, we don't do a lot of gifts. We've talked about this on podcasts before. We do, like, you know, three or four gifts, something the kids need, something they want. We have, like, this rule. Something they can read, right?
44:36 Chad
Oh, God, my kids would not make it in your household.
44:39 Patrick
Yeah. But we also usually take trips around Christmas, right? Like, this year we didn't take it at Christmas, but we went skiing, and that was the big, you know, family gift. Um, but anyways, so we don't have that many gifts, but they are very nicely wrapped. They have, like, twigs and berries and, you know, all the different types of flair that-
44:55 Chad
Basically, your wife is Mr. Bean on Love Actually.
44:58 Patrick
It... Yeah, very similar. Yes. Yeah.
45:01 Chad
Mr. Bean, so good.
45:03 Patrick
Um, so we do that one in the fall. We do the book fair, usually comes around. Uh, then we have one that, uh, is, um, usually, like, a medical association. I think we do, like, the American Junior Heart Association or something like that, that we do a... It's, like, a cash-only fundraiser. Uh, and then, and then we do the, the big one, which is, like, the really thick catalog of a bunch of junk, right? And that's the one where you can win, um, you know, a limo ride to, um, CiCis Pizza for a pizza party, right? Like, they do, they do that. I will tell you, my kids have never gotten any of that stuff.
45:43 Chad
I'm just saying, it would be cheaper for you to give the net proceeds to the organization and then pool up with, like, five friends and get a limo ride and go to CiCis.
45:52 Patrick
I would just... I-
45:52 Chad
You would still save money.
45:54 Patrick
Yeah, I told you this in, in the text message exchange that we had on this one, that, um, for me, it's not really about the tax dollars or not tax dollars, 'cause it's probably going to fund something that tax dollars wouldn't fund, is my guess. Um, but what is interesting to me on this one, is I would love to have, like, an annual opt-out. Like, just tell me as a parent I need to write a $200 check, and I'll never have to do a fundraiser. I would write you that $200 check in a heartbeat.
46:19 Chad
Mm-hmm.
46:19 Patrick
Just give me an annual opt-out. That's all I want. Um, and so I'm not real big on fundraisers or raffle tickets or things like that. Like, in baseball, we do raffle tickets, and it's quite annoying for me. Um, but it's part of it. It's part of raising money, and we, we try to do our best, so. Is your rant over now?
46:40 Chad
Yeah.
46:40 Patrick
I don't take it near as personally as you do.
46:43 Chad
Yeah. It's, uh... Again, my problem is not the, the fundraisers for organizations. It's the fundraisers that effectively are, like, for the school.
46:54 Patrick
Yeah.
46:54 Chad
It just does not make any sense to me.
46:56 Patrick
Yeah.
46:57 Chad
But whatever. I'm a curmudgeon. I think everyone knows it at this point. So.
47:02 Patrick
All right. So it's been, what, like, two and a half to three months-
47:05 Chad
It has... Yeah
47:05 Patrick
... since we did a podcast.
47:06 Chad
It's been a long time. We got, we got underwater a little bit for a while.
47:10 Patrick
We got, we got a little underwater. Let's, let's be a little honest with everybody. We have been trying to get everybody on the property tax, that has asked to come on property tax, and so we have finally, I think, figured out that process. Uh, and we are moving as quick as we can to get people on board, and that kinda took away from our podcast a little bit. But, hey, making this promise, we're gonna get back on the horse. We're gonna continue to do these pods, uh, and you should hear from us, you know, more often than you were over the last three months, for sure.
47:40 Chad
All right, I'm just gonna hang up on you now.
47:41 Patrick
Oh, that's it? Yeah, okay.
47:43 Chad
See ya.
47:44 Patrick
See ya.