The shrinking savings

Household savings skyrocketed during the pandemic. Now that they're falling back to Earth, will retail sales come down with them? What other headwinds might stand in the way of the significant growth we've seen since 2020? Also, is Trunk-or-Treat a harmless Halloween innovation or a sign that we have given up on creating safe, walkable neighborhoods?

Timelines
00:00 - Throat clearing
05:15 - What's up in retail?
14:18 - Headwinds for 2024-2025?
23:45 - Is Trunk-or-Treat a symptom of bad walkability?
42:30 - College football and third places

Links

0:13 Chad
Greetings, and welcome back to ZacCast, your official podcast for local government nerdery of all sorts. I'm Chad, that's Pat, and we are back to talk about some retail sales, talk about Halloween, talk about those mighty Texas Rangers maybe a little bit, one game away from a World Series championship. Uh, Pat, I had to move last minute into a, a, a new secure location here to record this episode, and, um, it's unfortunate because at my desk I have a, a baseball that's signed by John Smoltz. It was given to me by my aunt and uncle like, I don't know, 25 years ago, and, uh, it's sitting on my desk because, um, all of my autographed baseballs have been moved away from where my kids can get them after one of them found a Nolan Ryan signed ball and then left it out, and it got eaten up by a dog. So they're all, like, safe and secure, yeah, safe and secure in my office, and I look at this John Smoltz ball every day 'cause it's just sitting right there. And over the past couple of weeks, every time I see it, it just makes me so angry because I don't know if he... I don't know how much you've been watching the actual, uh, TV broadcasts, but this guy just hates the Rangers. Like, last night we're winning 10 to 1, and he's talking about what an advantage Arizona's gonna have in game seven because Scherzer's out and we have no pitcher. It's like, dude.
1:34 Patrick
Yeah.
1:34 Chad
Give me a break.
1:36 Patrick
I, I don't think it's gonna get to a game seven at this point. I, I think it's gonna be very difficult for the Rangers to, to lose. But, um, I'm also trying to jinx the Rangers. As an Astros fan, I, I really am not super happy about the Rangers making it to the World Series. My Astros choked mightily in the last two games of the ALCS. So, uh, I also wanna mention the room that you are in, uh, is your, your TV movie room within your house, right?
2:01 Chad
It is.
2:01 Patrick
And, uh, I have to stare at a full- ... life-size cardboard cutout of Nicolas Cage. From what movie? What movie is this, this cutout?
2:12 Chad
I have no idea what movie it's from.
2:15 Patrick
Okay.
2:15 Chad
But for, for whatever reason, about, I don't know, five, six, seven years ago, my wife and I just decided that we were going to watch every single Nicolas Cage movie ever, and, um, I'm not... If you're not familiar with his story, Pat, he had some financial troubles.
2:32 Patrick
He did, yeah.
2:32 Chad
And so, uh, he is basically making every B movie that you could possibly imagine, except that they're all pretty much the same movie.
2:39 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
2:40 Chad
Um, same stories, just kind of slightly different settings and time periods and things like that. So they're all really terrible except for, uh, a couple that have come out recently. Um, there was a movie called Pig, where he was a... He owned a truffle pig.
2:55 Patrick
Yes.
2:56 Chad
That was pretty interesting.
2:57 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
2:57 Chad
And then there was a movie where he worked at some kind of, like, roller rink, and he didn't speak for the entire movie pretty much.
3:04 Patrick
Yeah, so-
3:04 Chad
Those were kind of... Those were different and, and quite enjoyable.
3:08 Patrick
But, like, in his own, like, weird indie way, it's kind of made him more famous as an actor than it would have, 'cause he's kind of got this cult following now because of him doing all these B-rate films. Like, people just go watch these films because they're like, "Okay, what's the crazy Nicolas Cage we're gonna get now?" Right?
3:26 Chad
Yes.
3:27 Patrick
Yeah. So I, I think-
3:28 Chad
Yeah, so I-
3:28 Patrick
... I think that's, that's interesting. I also wanna start this podcast because one of my favorite instructors in Peloton starts the podcast by saying what they're wearing. So I just want everybody to know I'm wearing a, uh, off-blue, um, you know, shirt, polo shirt, and gray shorts. Anybody in the Peloton world, if you can email me who that instructor is, I'll send you something nice.
3:54 Chad
Okay.
3:54 Patrick
But-
3:54 Chad
But for the record, I am wearing a beautiful retro red Texas Rangers jacket.
3:59 Patrick
Uh-huh. That's... Uh, and it, it hurts me, and you're wearing it on purpose, by the way, 100%.
4:04 Chad
Well, yeah.
4:04 Patrick
And underneath that is a solidly burnt orange. My wife would say that you clash in those colors, my friend. But, uh-
4:12 Chad
I don't care
4:12 Patrick
... what is, what is the burnt orange T-shirt you have underneath there?
4:15 Chad
It's just a light long sleeve undershirt. It's not a, not a Texas shirt, no.
4:19 Patrick
Okay. So, uh, and, and the Oklahoma loss does give your team, uh, you know, a shot now at, at some major prominence. I guess you would've had to win the Big 12 championship anyways. But-
4:30 Chad
Yeah
4:30 Patrick
... yeah, it's very, very sad in the world of Oklahoma over there, but it's still you two guys going if you win out, I think, at this point. Had a little trouble-
4:38 Chad
Yeah
4:38 Patrick
... with the Cougars there, both Cougars, U of H Cougars, BYU Cougars. Shout out to Michael.
4:43 Chad
D- uh, you, you wa- I know that we haven't podded this football season, but if you wanna get into this, maybe we should save it for the end, 'cause I got plenty to say.
4:50 Patrick
Okay. I, I'll, uh, I'll, I'll save it to the end. I'm, I'm also gonna save to the end the text message you sent. Uh, you know, Michael's worked with us for, like, six months, so we're gonna, we're gonna go into that one for a little bit- ... 'cause I never even responded to that text message, but I did find it quite hysterical. Um, and, uh, yeah, so hey, let's, let's jump into our-
5:08 Chad
Can't believe you're gonna call me out here on the podcast.
5:09 Patrick
I am gonna call you out on the podcast-
5:10 Chad
Call me out
5:10 Patrick
... 'cause I know Michael listens to it too, and I think it's really funny. Um, so you-
5:16 Chad
Okay, real quick, I can do a segue here.
5:17 Patrick
Yeah, what do you got?
5:19 Chad
So speaking of all of the Nicolas Cage movies that you have to rent if you want to be an avid cult follower, I think that my wife and I have probably contributed about 5% to the GDP growth just in our rentals of Nicolas Cage movies. But you may have some different information to talk about as far as, uh, retail sales and stuff like that goes.
5:39 Patrick
Yeah, so great article, uh, that I ran across, uh, just earlier this week, uh, looking specifically at retail sales. Now, we've had a lot of conversations, uh, with, uh, with cities, um, and had those conversations about the softening of retail sales. A lot of cities are noticing within their sales tax returns that retail sales are getting quite soft, and in some cases, those retail sales are turning a bit negative.Really good article, uh, that we are going to post in the show notes. It's an article from The Street. Uh, anybody who knows, uh, Jim Cramer, which is, you know, always an interesting character on CNBC, um, you know-
6:13 Chad
Yeah, I want you to tell this story while basically yelling.
6:17 Patrick
Correct.
6:18 Chad
About it.
6:18 Patrick
"Sell, sell, sell." That Jim Cramer. Uh, and so, uh, but the, The Street came-
6:24 Chad
If you can, if you can, like, grab up here and start pulling your hair out too while you're-
6:28 Patrick
E- exactly. So, you know-
6:29 Chad
... in frustration
6:29 Patrick
... e- everybody knows that it's crazy. So, um, but retail stocks right now, unless you're in the world of Amazon or Walmart, uh, pretty standard what I would consider, like, recessionary buys within the retail side. Um, there's not really a safe place to be unless you're in, you know, more of those, like, recessionary stocks. I'm not saying we're in a recession, uh, and I'm not saying we're moving towards a recession. In fact, my weekly recession index has, has dropped below 50%. Uh-
6:56 Chad
After the 5% growth last quarter?
6:58 Patrick
After the 5% growth last quarter, I'm like, "Well, maybe, you know, inflation and growth can kind of get back on track. We'll see." Uh, but that doesn't change the fact that I think we're gonna see some stalling in sales tax, uh, specifically. So, uh, or sales tax growth, and that's what this article goes after. This article talks specifically about what's happening and softening in the retail sector. Uh, so not only retail, but in travel and entertainment as well. Uh, what we're seeing is just a lack of overall consumption, uh, a lack of buying power that's occurring. Uh, and there's a couple of cool charts in this article that we'll post in the show notes for you guys to look at as well. Uh, but mainly, you know, looking at this from a standpoint of what the actual amount of savings we had, uh, in March of '20 versus what we have now. So, um, during basically the peak of the pandemic, uh, Americans had $3.4 trillion, uh, in savings. Uh, and a lot of that, you know, obviously is due to stimulus and, uh... But even in March of '20, we didn't have a lot of stimulus yet, um, but we had a lot of lockup. People started saving about 34, 35% of their income, uh, at a time, and that savings rate in June of '23 has now fallen to, uh, 1 trillion. Uh, and JPMorgan Chase made, uh, a pretty strong statement that said, uh, "American savings should sh- largely be exhausted by 2024. Uh, important even as, uh, basically the second quarter of '23, nearly all inflation-adjusted excess cash sits at a, uh, with the relatively affluent." So basically, your top 20% of earners. They actually put together a, another chart with this article that they, they stole from Jim Cramer, who stole from Carl, uh, Quintanilla. Uh, and, and I probably just butchered Carl's name. You wanna, you wanna pronounce it correctly?
8:52 Chad
Uh, no, I'm gonna let you sit on that one.
8:54 Patrick
Okay, cool. Yeah. So if somebody wants to correct me on that, that's fine. I should've been able to do that being a Houston kid.
8:59 Chad
You are from South Texas.
9:00 Patrick
I am from South Texas.
9:01 Chad
I expect you to be able to-
9:02 Patrick
I, I'm so happy that you respect my origin. Thank you. So, um, but this looks at, uh, the inflation-adjusted excess liquidity that's held, uh, by consumers and where they fall within the consumer chart. So, uh, basically if you make between, you know, 20 to 60% of the income threshold or income level, uh, if you're in the bottom 20%, uh, or if you're, uh, in the, um... Sorry, I'm missing one. If you're in the 60 to 80% range, so if you're not in the top 20% of earners, right? This is saying that in June of '23, you either were consuming the same that you were in March of '20, or you're consuming about 5% less than you were in March of '20. Right?
9:53 Chad
So I read this chart a little bit differently.
9:54 Patrick
Okay, go for it.
9:55 Chad
I read it to say that outside of the top 20% of income earners, the excess liquidity is back to what it was in March 2020, not that they're spending less.
10:09 Patrick
Cor- correct.
10:09 Chad
But this basically, they've exhausted all the savings gains that they had since the pandemic started.
10:14 Patrick
Yeah, it's, but it is adjusted by the, the personal consumption.
10:17 Chad
Right. There on the right side of the chart. So-
10:22 Patrick
The percentage change in inflation-adjusted l- uh, liquid assets, right? The liquid assets-
10:26 Chad
So that's account... So they have, they have more nominal dollars in savings now, but when you adjust for inflation, it's the same. Actually, for the bottom-
10:33 Patrick
Bottom 20%
10:34 Chad
... 40% of income earners-
10:35 Patrick
Yeah
10:35 Chad
... the bottom 40%, it is almost 5% lower-
10:38 Patrick
Yep
10:38 Chad
... than it was when the in, when the pandemic started. And for the, what is that, 20 to 60% income earners, it's basically back where it was in March of 2020.
10:51 Patrick
Right.
10:51 Chad
So JPMorgan is saying that the only people who have more savings after adjusting for inflation compared to March 2020 is the top 20% of income earners.
10:59 Patrick
Which holds most of that $1 trillion in savings, is basically what they're saying.
11:03 Chad
Right.
11:03 Patrick
Right? Um, and so what, what does this mean from a retail sales perspective? Well, if there's not available cash, and there's not available liquidity for consumption, it means we're gonna have a slowdown in consumption in anybody that's below that basically top 20% threshold, right? So, um, you're going to see less sales. Now, what's crazy is the amount of consumption that happens from the top 20% compared to the amount of consumption that happens for everybody below that amount. So is this gonna be like a, a crash of, you know, like 2009 proportions, like 18, 20% drops in retail sales? I, I don't think so. I think what we're seeing right now is, you know, 4 to 6%, um, in what I would consider to be softening or reductions in sales tax. I had a couple conversations with cities this week after the October data was posted, uh, you know, where they're seeing those reductions, and they, they just seem to be a softening in that sector. Once again-It's mentioned in this chart, I think it's important, but, you know, your recessionary retailers, uh, that are, you know, a little bit more recession-proof, like your Walmarts, uh, your TJ Maxxes, uh, your Costcos, your Amazons, uh, those folks are, are not seeing those same declines in spending and consumption. Uh, I'm not sure Amazon's really considered a recessionary other than the fact that Amazon just continues to grow in market share, and I think that kinda hits it as well, so, um-
12:31 Chad
I would say it is because it's just constantly adding even more really poorly made goods through its marketplace.
12:38 Patrick
Yeah, true. In, in-
12:39 Chad
Like, it's really hard now to find either name brand things or, like, high quality things-
12:44 Patrick
Mm-hmm
12:45 Chad
... um, at those lower, lower prices. Everything is just, like, some cheap knockoff crap.
12:51 Patrick
Yeah, absolutely. And, and it's, I, I think that's a topic for another conversation to really jump into that. But, but even then, like, I, uh, I needed a air pressure inflator for my truck for my tires, right? It got cold this week, um, in Texas, and so, you know, obviously I lost air pressure and, you know, I kinda got tired of, like, using the old pressure thing and then having to test the pressure and separating it. So I went and bought, like, one of those $20 ones that has the gauge on it, uh, as you fill it, which is kinda nice. I looked for it on Amazon, and on Amazon it was, like, 40 bucks. Then I went to Walmart and it was, like, $18.88, right? So, um, I, I find it very interesting that, um, Amazon prices are not as competitive as they were a couple of years ago, at least in my consuming world, right? It's you're paying for convenience now with Amazon. Um, and their pricing is not always as competitive.
13:43 Chad
Yeah, unless you wanna buy something really crappy.
13:46 Patrick
True, yeah.
13:46 Chad
Yeah.
13:47 Patrick
Um, but, you know, and there used to be, you know, great things like Amazon Basic sheets were, were kinda nice, right? Uh, and, you know, I think Amazon's talking about getting rid of a lot of their, their own in-house brands, right? So the Basics brands and some of the other stuff that they had, like, on the sporting side, and, and that, um, that world, they're, they're talking about actually getting out of that business altogether. I think it's more for antitrust issues than it is for business side. Uh, but I think they're, they're concerned about the antitrust issues.
14:17 Chad
So going back to the JPMorgan commentary, um, they're suggesting that this excess household liquidity could be exhausted in the next six months. And since it's already been exhausted for the bottom s- what, 80% of income earners. You know, it's true that quite a bit of consumption, consumption happens at the top end of the income scale, but if over the next six months even that gets exhausted-
14:43 Patrick
Mm-hmm
14:43 Chad
... then where does that put us heading into, like, the second half of next fiscal year and moving into the budget, uh, process for 2025?
14:51 Patrick
Well, and I think that's gonna be interesting, right? If you, if you look at the politics in Washington, and I don't wanna get too political here, but if you look in the politics of Washington, there's, there's been some changes specifically within the Republican leadership of the House that's gonna get really interesting. You know, whether you like Mike Johnson or you don't like Mike Johnson, um, yeah, I know, boogeyman. Having a conversation the day after Halloween here about politics and, and I, I really am not taking a side on this. I wanna be very clear. But, you know, look, there's been a-
15:19 Chad
I have no opinion.
15:20 Patrick
Yeah. I... There's been a lot of labeling- ... of who Mike Johnson is.
15:22 Chad
That's what I tell my wife all the time.
15:23 Patrick
But if you, if you read what he's written and what he's talked about since he's become the House Speaker, uh, he has spec- specifically talked about deficit reform and spending reform, right? So it's gonna get real interesting as we get into the next fiscal year. He sounded a lot like Paul Ryan in some of the conversations that he was-
15:42 Chad
Yeah, but Paul Ryan had both houses of Congress-
15:44 Patrick
That's, that's correct
15:45 Chad
... and the White House.
15:46 Patrick
And he still couldn't get it done. So at the end of the day, as, you know, we still didn't, you know, do it. But at some point from a... A- and I'm talking to local government officials, right? That don't budget into, um, into deficits. Like, you know, we balance budget every year, and, uh, a lot of states have balanced budget, uh, you know, constitutional amendments and things like that. Um, but the federal government is... W- what are we currently spending a year in deficit?
16:12 Chad
I-
16:12 Patrick
What is our current federal deficit spending?
16:15 Chad
It's several trillion dollars. Two maybe.
16:19 Patrick
I'm, I'm doing... It's, uh-
16:20 Chad
There was... I saw an article recently, there's this huge issue about some accounting changes with, related to the, um, the student loan forgiveness proposal. 'Cause that had originally been booked in the previous fiscal year, and then the Supreme Court squashed it, and then so it's getting rebooked in the current year. And so, like, basically the, the deficit growth is a lot higher than it looks like on paper.
16:46 Patrick
Interesting.
16:47 Chad
But I think it's, I think it's around two trillion the last time I saw.
16:50 Patrick
It's a little less than two trillion. So the federal government in FY23 brought in 6.13 trillion, or had, sorry, spent $6.13 trillion-
16:59 Chad
Yeah
16:59 Patrick
... and collected 4.44 trillion in revenue, resulting in a deficit. So, you know, obviously resulting in a deficit of a little less than two trillion-
17:07 Chad
Yeah
17:07 Patrick
... uh, in FY23. So, but at some point they're gonna have to get a handle on the deficit spending, right? It's either... It's, it's pretty simple. It's either raise taxes or cut spending. It's, it's one or the other, so, and we're gonna have to figure out which one that's gonna be, uh, at some point. So, uh, it's, it's gonna be-
17:25 Chad
Yeah, with 5, 6%, um, rates on Treasuries, adding $2 trillion a year is gonna be tough.
17:34 Patrick
Yeah, absolutely. And I mean, you know, there's, there's crazy numbers of what our interest expense is right now versus our GDP growth, and I mean, those charts are just psycho to look at. Um, you know, and I mean, it's, look, it's, it's not like we haven't been here before. Like, let's, let's be clear. What? You're shaking your head.
17:50 Chad
No. We've n- we've never been to this point before.
17:54 Patrick
Uh, let me look. So World War II-
17:56 Chad
Debt to g- debt to GDP is higher than it's ever been, I'm pretty confident.
18:00 Patrick
Oh, you are 100% correct on that. Um-
18:03 Chad
Interest expense to GDP is probably higher than it's ever been
18:07 Patrick
So the percentage of gross domestic product of where debt held by the public, uh, projected to grow faster than GDP is at a, is at a point in 2020 that is very similar to World War II. That's the historical high right now. It will surpass that World War II level if this continues, uh, it looks about, like, 2028. So, and, you know, after World War II, we had, what, some of the highest tax rates we've ever had historically as a country, right? I think that's the history of it.
18:37 Chad
Yeah, people didn't... I mean, they weren't paying 90% marginal taxes, but yes, we did have on paper-
18:42 Patrick
Yeah
18:43 Chad
... extremely high tax rates at the upper end. But we also were in a situation where basically the entire world was broken except for America.
18:51 Patrick
C- correct. Uh, but-
18:52 Chad
Right
18:53 Patrick
... but since 2010, right, the 2007, 2009 through '9 financial crisis, since that point, uh, we've seen just a, a, a s- huge, significant increase of debt to GDP, right? And it's, it's a sharp curve there. And i- this information, by the way, is coming from the General, uh, Accounting Office, GAO. So, um, fun stuff. Gotta love Google. Got there quick. So I, I just think, you know, at the end of the day, we're gonna hit a wall, right? And I think that's what JPMorgan Chase is saying in their statement, is consumers are gonna hit a wall, and consumers are gonna hit a wall for a multitude of reasons. I'm not saying that people's finances are gonna crash and there's gonna be s- you know, extreme layoffs, and we're gonna see a recession that, you know, I... 'Cause I, I, I really honestly do not believe... At this point, I think our possibility is, you know, less than 50% that we're gonna see a recession '24 and '25. Um, so, but at the same time, interest rates are, you know, high. They're not historically high, but they're high. Uh, and so it's just, it's, it's gonna be very, there's not gonna be consumer credit for people to go after there either, right?
20:05 Chad
Mm-hmm. So the one thing that, so the rates themselves are not historically high.
20:09 Patrick
Correct.
20:10 Chad
But when you a- when you account for the price of the things that those rates are purchasing-
20:16 Patrick
Mm-hmm
20:16 Chad
... it adds a li- a little bit different context, right? Like, 18% interest rates on a house that's, like, one and a half times your income is different than an 8% interest rate on a house that's five times your income.
20:28 Patrick
Th- that's appreciated significantly more than what CPI would've appreciated within that period, right?
20:32 Chad
Right.
20:32 Patrick
So that- that's, that's important to talk about because the, the buying power of a house is different, so the interest cost of that house is also significantly higher than it would've been if that rate was that in 2000 and, say, five or 2006, right? 'Cause the house in 2005-
20:46 Chad
Right. Yeah, yeah
20:46 Patrick
... and 2006 was significantly cheaper even when you look at, uh, you know, CPI growth. We're, we're still running way above that. You sent me something on that the other day, or we talked about that the other day. That was probably also another text message that I didn't respond to, but I did like the chart.
21:05 Chad
Yeah, it was a website that I found.
21:07 Patrick
Yeah.
21:07 Chad
Um, uh, well, it's just the Case-Shiller, Case-Shiller index, though. Um, basically in the run-up to the housing bubble from 2000 to, like, mid-2007, the Case-Shiller index up here in the Tex- Dallas, Texas region went up, like, 26%. Over the past 10 years it's gone up, like, 123%.
21:28 Patrick
In home value, in home cost, right?
21:30 Chad
Yeah.
21:31 Patrick
Yeah. So, and CPI during that same period of time was significantly less than that. That's kinda the point that I was making. And so yeah, we're paying, you know, 7 or 8% interest rates on home mortgages, but you're paying that on a home mortgage that actually costs 50% more than it did then, even when adjusted for inflation, right? That's kinda what I was pointing out. So-
21:56 Chad
Yeah. It's kinda like tax capitalization, right? High taxes are going to have the effect of keeping your property values down.
22:03 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
22:04 Chad
So there's always this chicken and egg argument about, is our... Do we have high taxes because our property values are low? Are our property values kept lower because our taxes are so high and those things kinda balance out? Right? It's the same kind of effect that when, when rates are high but prices are lower, right, you can kind of manage, but when rates are high and prices are high, then you're in a bad spot.
22:30 Patrick
Yeah. So yeah, I think it's, you know... But once again, from what JPMorgan Chase is saying, second quarter of '24, and, you know, what we're talking about here, there's a lot of headwinds that are going to impact consumers-
22:44 Chad
Yeah
22:44 Patrick
... which means you're not gonna continue to see the hyper growth in retail sales-
22:48 Chad
The growth, yeah
22:48 Patrick
... tax dollars that you've seen over the past two to three years, right? So, um, you know, we probably need to get back to normal projections. We start need to, you know, we need to be paying better attention to the, you know, 18 over 36, uh, revenue growth charts. I'm seeing a lot of lines coming together now. Uh, you know, those type of things that, uh, you know, that are just precursors to, to making changes. I think it's very important not to make any rash adjustments or decisions at this point. I'm really curious to see what the November, December, right, sales are, which we're not gonna see until February and March. Um, but I think in February and March it's gonna be very telling what we get financially in sales tax returns from those two months.
23:32 Chad
Man, this is... We should've recorded this yesterday.
23:35 Patrick
Why? It's a Halloween episode?
23:38 Chad
Oh.
23:38 Patrick
I'm not being that scary.
23:40 Chad
No, it's a post-Halloween episode.
23:43 Patrick
So.
23:44 Chad
But, so speaking of Halloween, I wanna wrap this up with a little bit of a lighter item. Not really something that I had thought about myself too much, but I saw a lot of commentary, or as the, the people say these days, a lot of discourse on the social medias about trunk or treat.
24:04 Patrick
Mainly on the Twitter, right? Th- this doesn't-
24:07 Chad
Yes.
24:07 Patrick
Yes.
24:07 Chad
I won't call it X.
24:08 Patrick
We, we will never call it X on this program, yeah.
24:10 Chad
Because that's stupid.
24:10 Patrick
Exactly. So, but TwitterThis is mainly on Twitter because these type of conversations are not had on the book of faces.
24:16 Chad
That is true because yes, the Facebook the demographic of Facebook is not concerned about Trunk or Treat because most of them, their kids are, their kids have kids.
24:26 Patrick
Yes. I feel like we have to either call Facebook the Facebook or the book of faces.
24:30 Chad
Just drop the the.
24:32 Patrick
No. The Facebook was the original name.
24:33 Chad
Anyway.
24:34 Patrick
It was www.thefacebook.com.
24:36 Chad
I know.
24:37 Patrick
Yeah.
24:37 Chad
The Facebook. But I, I'm just referencing that iconic scene in-
24:42 Patrick
Yeah
24:42 Chad
... The Social Network movie where he says, Justin Timberlake says-
24:47 Patrick
Yeah. I remember
24:47 Chad
... "Drop the the. Just Facebook." Anyway, you know what's cool?
24:52 Patrick
What?
24:52 Chad
A billion dollars. Oh, I should watch that movie again. I like to listen to that soundtrack when I'm trying to get into a flow state. Like, when I'm trying to get into the zone at work, I will put that soundtrack on because it's just kind of chill and ominous and just kinda keeps me focused. But, um, anyway-
25:13 Patrick
Gotcha
25:13 Chad
... so Trunk or Treat, right? For those not familiar with Trunk or Treat, it is a phenomenon where kids will be driven to parking lots, and then they will walk through a sea of cars that have their trunks open to dole out candy.
25:33 Patrick
How many Trunk or Treats did you go to with the family this year?
25:36 Chad
Just one at the school.
25:38 Patrick
Okay.
25:38 Chad
But it was raining, so we actually had to go inside the cafeteria.
25:41 Patrick
Okay.
25:42 Chad
I don't know where it started. My guess is it probably started with churches as, like, a safe place, you know, where the kids can go and not have, like, super spooky things. You can kinda control the environment. Um, I've been to s- we've been, over the years, to several Trunk or Treats at churches.
25:58 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
26:00 Chad
But the broader argument that was being made is are Trunk or Treats a signal that we've basically just given up on building safe, walkable neighborhoods, right? You think about what Trick or Treat used to be, and I... Actually, there's an interesting article or, uh, podcast, Stuff You Should Know. They talked about, uh, how does trick-or-treating work and, like, the history of trick-or-treating, and one of the interesting things they talked about was how it was used for the longest time as, like, an opportunity for kids to be grown-ups for a night, right? Like, it was still kind of a controlled environment, but they would be able to go out on their own, walk the streets, have that level of responsibility where they weren't under sort of constant supervision. And even in regular trick-or-treating, which we've done two separate rounds this year, there are very few kids that you see that are just running around on their own. But ramping that up is Trunk or Treat where it's not even that, like, the kids are being able to walk around the neighborhood with their parents. It's like, no, we're driving you to this very secure and, and sanitized location so that you can walk eight feet from parking space to parking space and get candy out of the back of someone's car. Like, it's just maybe the epitome of sort of car-centric community design.
27:24 Patrick
So I don't... Yeah.
27:25 Chad
So I'm just throwing that out there at you to see what you think.
27:29 Patrick
So I, I live in a larger lot community, you know, one of those what would be considered not profitable for the city type communities, so, uh-
27:39 Chad
Especially when there's no property tax
27:40 Patrick
... no property tax. And, and I... Not only do we highly dislike cul-de-sacs, uh, within our normal jobs, but I live on a double cul-de-sac, right? So, um, I have to say I made that decision in 2013, actually 2012, when I signed the contract on my house, uh, to be built, and, uh, that decision was made well before I truly understood the financial dynamics of the, of the neighborhood.
28:01 Chad
Well, the thing is living on a cul-de-sac is different than being the city responsible for maintaining the cul-de-sac-
28:07 Patrick
Yes
28:07 Chad
... right? Living... I lived on cul-de-sacs growing up, and they're wonderful, um, if all you care about is having, like, an area where no one drives because there's only four people on the cul-de-sac. So you go out and play baseball or whatever-
28:19 Patrick
Yeah. I, I think in general-
28:20 Chad
... in the street
28:20 Patrick
... it's not just the walkability that we've lost. It's also just the, the neighborly feel that we've lost, right? Social media's done that as well. Like, the, uh, I always find it interesting that people will say something to a neighbor on a community Facebook page that they would never say to them face to face in their front yard, right? So I think we've just lost that.
28:41 Chad
I'm surprised at how much politics gets injected into those neighborhood pages.
28:46 Patrick
Oh, it's, it's crazy, and not only that, it, um, it's-
28:50 Chad
And not, not like local politics but, like, national politics. Like-
28:53 Patrick
Yeah. Like-
28:53 Chad
... over the next year, like, it's gonna be... You, you can't even really go on those pages 'cause people are just arguing about the presidential election. It's like, this is a neighborhood Facebook page, guys.
29:03 Patrick
Yeah, correct. And, you know, I, I, I'm always very careful on my social media not to post, like, "Hey, I believe in this," right? I occasionally will post something that's factual. So the other day somebody posted on one of our community pages about-
29:18 Chad
Okay
29:18 Patrick
... uh, a road bond election that's occurring in the county that I live in and that a specific area was getting no benefit from that road bond election, as in there were no projects there. And, and I was like, "Well, that's factually incorrect," and so I just went on there and posted all three of the projects that specifically impacted that area. But getting back to my original point, people don't talk to each other anymore. They don't sit in their front yards. It's... We have, like, this get-off-my-lawn culture now that, that has occurred, right? And I think that plays a role in some of that as well that, you know, maybe not everybody's super friendly. I will say super impressed with my neighborhood. It, it was really good this year. In our neighborhood, we walk. We don't have sidewalks, but we walk house to house. The parents kinda hang out in the street, and the kids just run through yards, right, from house to house. Um, and those parents hanging out in the street with, with Yetis that, uh, in our community, uh, Yeti means alcoholic beverage. So anytime you have one of those in your hand, it's an alcoholic beverage. Uh, and they go, "I dressed up for Halloween. Did you dress up for Halloween?"
30:20 Chad
Uh, no, really. I don't dress up for Halloween because I'm a 40-year-old man.
30:26 Patrick
Uh, so I'm, I'm 39, so I really can still dress up, so thank you very much for that. Um, you- did you see a picture of, of what I dressed up as?
30:35 Chad
Mari- uh, Bowser, right?
30:35 Patrick
I was Bowser, yeah.
30:36 Chad
Yeah.
30:36 Patrick
So my kids were Mario and Luigi.
30:38 Chad
Yeah, you sent to me.
30:38 Patrick
My wife was, uh, Peaches, and I was Bowser, so.
30:41 Chad
Did you sing the song?
30:42 Patrick
I, I sang the song, and I had a Bluetooth speaker that was playing the whole time-
30:46 Chad
To you
30:46 Patrick
... on repeat. Yeah. Peaches, Peaches, Peaches, Peaches, Peaches. Jack Black. It's a great song. If you, if, if you don't have kids and you haven't seen that movie, uh, I'll be shocked if you have-
30:56 Chad
It's a good movie
30:57 Patrick
... kids and you haven't seen that movie. But if, if you have not seen the Mario movie, you have to go see it. It's actually a really good movie, and Jack Black does an incredible job, uh, in that movie, so, as Bowser. But, uh, yeah, so I, I mean, I get your point, like, you know, communities, we haven't really built communities that are as walkable anymore, but man, I think it's more cultural. I think that... I mean, I just really do. I, I think, you know, we built communities l- like this in sprawl areas in the '70s and the '80s, and when I was a kid, trick-or-treating was huge, and it was fine. But-
31:27 Chad
Well, think about, like, E.T.
31:30 Patrick
Yeah.
31:30 Chad
Right? E.T. is in sprawl. Is that LA, I think it said, or at least somewhere in Southern California.
31:36 Patrick
Yeah.
31:36 Chad
And those kids get off on their bikes and run around, and they have an alien with them.
31:38 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
31:39 Chad
I think that the, the issue with the cultural aspect of our communities is I don't think it's fair to say, "Well, in the '70s and '80s, we had the same type of sprawl neighborhoods that we have now, but we had the freedom to go do those things," right?
31:59 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
31:59 Chad
Like, I pr- yeah, like, during the summer, I would go off on my bike and ride over to my friend's house, and we would just go all over the neighborhood. Like, there was a big park with a creek, and we would just go out there all day, right? We didn't have cell phones. We had no way for our parents to get ahold of us, and we would do that. My parents grew up in the '60s and '70s, where that was even more-
32:19 Patrick
Mm-hmm
32:20 Chad
... tolerated, right? And I, I think that there's a compounding effect, uh, over time, like from generation to generation, where those, that clamp kind of comes a little bit tighter as we go down. It's almost like multiplicity, right? Like a clone of a clone. By the third Michael Keaton, like, he's got issues.
32:40 Patrick
Yes.
32:40 Chad
You know? I think, like, we're in, like, the fifth generation now of this, um, and I think that it's having a compounding effect. Like, I have to actively struggle to let my children, um, have the same kind of freedoms that I had growing up because I think there is a cultural aspect of it, but even knowing that cultural aspect exists, I still have to fight against it.
33:07 Patrick
Yeah, so I, I mean, once again, just to hit on my same point, I think social media culture has a lot to do with that, right? Uh, because, like, my kids run around like banshees in the neighborhood. Uh, I ran around... You know, just to your point, we used to take Red Ryder BB guns and have BB gun wars and shoot each other with Red Ryders at the bayou, right?
33:24 Chad
We didn't shoot each other, but we would go out in the woods and shoot stuff.
33:27 Patrick
Yeah, we would, we would shoot each other, and I did get shot in the eye one time. Uh, but my eye's still here. It's good news. Um, we were highly irresponsible. You know, same thing. We would, you know, play street football, right? And everybody would yell, "Car," when a car came and, and things like that.
33:41 Chad
Mm-hmm.
33:41 Patrick
So-
33:41 Chad
Game on.
33:42 Patrick
Yeah. And, and, you know, my kids are, I would say, uh, you know, my kids go out for hours upon hours. You know, if Saturday afternoon when we don't have something going on, they could be gone for, like, six hours, right? At, in, in the neighborhood playing with the neighborhood kids. But man, every once in a while you'll get a stay-off-my-lawn type who will post on social media a picture of a group of 15 kids and how obnoxiously loud and rude they are, and I'm just like, "Wow." You know? You, you kind of... The, the kids didn't say anything to them. They're just loud, and somebody yells outside-
34:15 Chad
Yeah
34:15 Patrick
... for them to be quieter. Uh, and I'm like, they're outside in the street playing a game, and it's just-
34:22 Chad
In the middle of the day
34:22 Patrick
... in the middle of the day, and it's just not something that somebody would say directly to a kid to be quiet. Like, you go to social media to say that instead of just saying, "Hey, guys. I'm trying to sleep because I work nights." I remember growing up, we had a guy who did that. Same thing, right? Um, and so we would always play on the street next door 'cause he worked nights. But you don't walk out there and tell those kids. You just act like those are the worst kids in the world because they play outside all day. Um-
34:45 Chad
Yeah
34:45 Patrick
... you know. So I, I think culture is just, it's changed a lot on that, and it's, it's gonna take-
34:51 Chad
Yeah, there's-
34:51 Patrick
... a reverse mindset to fix that.
34:53 Chad
I think there used to be a little bit more of an understanding that, like, the kids that are playing in the street aren't just the responsibility of their parents, but, like, you can take an active level of responsibility for those kids, too.
35:08 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
35:08 Chad
We definitely don't have that anymore. It's like that, that trust does not exist.
35:13 Patrick
Yeah.
35:13 Chad
And I don't know if it's because the individuals don't feel like they have the right to do that, right? Like, if someone's... If, if the kids are doing something dangerous or loud or whatever in the street and they're not your kids, I feel like when I was growing up, if a parent or a neighbor was, like, gardening in the front yard, like, they would yell at us to stop-
35:32 Patrick
Yeah, 100%
35:32 Chad
... being stupid-
35:33 Patrick
Yeah
35:33 Chad
... right? Or being dangerous, right? I don't think that would happen anymore, at least in most places.
35:38 Patrick
So-
35:38 Chad
Like, in my experience, it wouldn't. I, I know that we had... Real quick, we had a... This was probably, like, eight or 10 years ago. It was right after we moved to this neighborhood, and we had some kids who would, like, walk through the neighborhood, and they would, they just would put, like, plastic forks in people's, like, on the side of the yards or, like, in front of neighbor- or in front of mailboxes. And I sw-
36:01 Patrick
To be clear, that's called f- that's called forking people.
36:04 Chad
Okay. Well, I swear to God, some of the people thought that this was, like, a Satanic ritual and that these houses were being marked for either robbery or, like, some kind of, you know, awful thing, and they would post about it on the Facebook page. Like, "I saw these forks in my yard. Is my house gonna get robbed?" It's like, guys-Seriously
36:23 Patrick
I, I think-
36:23 Chad
Let it go, Elsa.
36:25 Patrick
Let it go. Um, I mean, look, the... I, I find it funny that we've had, like, two really good movies, you know, one Clint Eastwood movie and then one Tom Hanks movie that's come out that really symbolizes this, like, get off my lawn culture, right? Um, and, and honestly, it's, it's just, I don't understand somebody who buys into a neighborhood that's not restricted for kids and then gets mad about kids playing on a street. Like, for me, I just ... And I, and to be clear, like, the street that I live on is great. We actually have a couple, retired couples that love the kids and love on my kids. Um, my youngest came home the other day, and I forgot to open the garage, and he knew to go next door to one of those retired couples and hang out, and she made him a snack and sent me a text and let them know that, "Hey, garage door malfunctioned." He couldn't get it open and, and so, you know, but, like, it's great to have those type of neighbors. Um, but we do see more and more often that people don't interact with people. Um, and, and I mean, we used to see it in the city side too, right? Like, we'd get a code enforcement complaint, and it was more of like a neighborly complaint, and we would always say, always say, "Have you talked to that neighbor yet?" And they would always go, "Well, I, I mean, that's just, uh, that's, that's their job." And I'm like, "No, it's, it's not, it's not my job. It's-"
37:43 Chad
You can also be super passive-aggressive, like, "Hey, neighbor, you might not have time to mow your yard. Would you like me to do it for you?"
37:49 Patrick
Right. And, and, and like, man, I, I know that people are not as blunt as I am in life. Um, but if you don't like something, and there's a difference between not liking something and being able to deal with something. But if you don't like something and you feel like it's really disturbing for you, just have a conversation. It's that, it's that simple. Um, I mean, I had a simple conversation with one of my neighbors when they moved in 'cause they built a fence and they decided to put all the nasty rail on the outside of the fence. And, and I was like, "Hey, you know, that's not really appropriate to build your fence that way, you know?" And I said, "At least on my side, I'd love it to be double-sided, and I'll pay for the double side of the fence so that I don't have to look at it." And you know, my neighbor didn't make me pay for it, uh, and they did it. But it's just like simple things like that, like when you live in a neighborhood, you kinda have to be accountable to neighbors. You know, you have to make sure that you're not doing things that are disturbing your neighbors. Uh-
38:46 Chad
Yeah. We just pushed a lot of that through more formal institutions that don't work very well, like whether it's HOAs or up to the city, right? Like, we've pushed them up, we've pushed those conflicts up to let other people do it, and typically, yeah, in many cases, to people who are paid to do it, so that we don't have to have those conflicts ourselves and build those kinds of relationships.
39:11 Patrick
Yes. I would 100% agree with that. I'm gonna tell, I'm gonna tell a little bit-
39:15 Chad
Yeah. I-
39:15 Patrick
... of a story, uh-
39:16 Chad
Go ahead
39:16 Patrick
... here, and this, this may lengthen us out a little bit.
39:18 Chad
Okay.
39:18 Patrick
But you kinda hit a topic there which I think is very important in today's world. Um, we don't teach people how to conflict, uh, how, how to have conflict resolution in today's world, right? We teach people how to live in conflict. We teach them how to be very passive within conflict, but we don't teach them actually how to resolve that conflict well. Um, give you a prime example. I've, I've got a, um, a son who is very active. He's just like me. He's basically a carbon copy of me. And, um, you know, he did not... Basically, he was, he thought he was doing something that was correct, and when his teacher corrected him, he sighed and rolled his eyes. And the teacher sent an email. Uh, and that email was basically, "This is inappropriate that he sighed and rolled his eyes." And my first response was, "Well, did you tell him it was inappropriate that he sighed and rolled his eyes?" And the answer was no. So even figures of authority don't actually confront the issue. They go directly to-
40:18 Chad
Mm-hmm.
40:18 Patrick
And, and we love this teacher, right? We love the person that she is, and we're super appreciative of her teaching, and my wife works in education as well. Um, but it's just, it's, it's like, it's those little things that happen and, you know, the comment that I made to the teacher is, "Look, I'm, I'm raising a kid to stand up for who he is, stand up for himself," because I think that's gonna be the sellable attribute, right? Just like coding is gonna be super important for people in the future, being able to confront and have hard conversations and do difficult things is going to be something that not a lot of people are gonna have in this future generation, the ability to do. There's my soapbox. I'll get off now.
40:59 Chad
So one thing I've never understood about the fencing thing, yes, it's uglier to, like, see the rails, but if you put them on the outside, then people can jump your fence and get into your yard.
41:10 Patrick
Most cities, yeah, most cities have ordinances that require that-
41:13 Chad
Right? Like I've-
41:14 Patrick
... smooth side to be out, right? And the city that I live in and used to work in has that ordinance as well.
41:19 Chad
Yeah.
41:19 Patrick
But yeah, you're, you're right.
41:22 Chad
I've just never understood why you would want that part to be on the outside. Like, if you're... Make it harder. The purpose of the fence is for, like, privacy and security, right?
41:31 Patrick
Yeah.
41:31 Chad
Don't make it easy for someone to jump over it.
41:33 Patrick
Well, in, in the wind capital of Texas of Parker County that we, that I live in, right, I've never understood privacy fences to begin with. Like, anybody who has a privacy fence in my neighborhood has lost it every two years it gets knocked down. Steel poles, no steel poles, it doesn't matter. The privacy fence gets knocked down. So-
41:49 Chad
What about the, um, the ones that have, like, the double, like, the... It's double-sided, but-
41:55 Patrick
Uh, and it, yeah
41:56 Chad
... it's not continuous
41:56 Patrick
They don't, they don't get knocked-
41:57 Chad
So it's like, so-
41:57 Patrick
They don't get knocked down near as much, and those are actually really cool-looking fences.
42:00 Chad
But like-
42:00 Patrick
Uh, you know, but yeah, you're right. They don't get knocked down very much. I have one privacy, like, one section of privacy fence on my property, and it's, it's for my pool equipment because I don't want my neighbors to have to look at my pool equipment. Uh, and that fence I constantly have to maintain because every time we have a straight-line wind event, which is, like, 40 times a year in Parker County, I have to go and, and, you know, fix the slats that came off of that fence. So, um-You know, but yeah, it's, it, it is tough. I want to get... I want to wrap this conversation up though with what I started in the beginning of this, uh, of this call, which is, or the beginning of this podcast. So we have a new employee who's been with us for over six months, right? He's technically not new. And he has not f- fully experienced Ch-
42:47 Chad
He's passed his probationary period.
42:48 Patrick
He's passed his probationary period, yes. Uh, congratulations, Michael. Um, but he has not experienced the full Chad college football Saturday experience, right? The highs and lows of whether Texas is good or bad, you know, um, whether you want to fire a coach or keep a coach, uh, all of that jazz. And, and just the utter... And you have gotten better at this, I will say. And I think it's mainly 'cause you have other things like kids that keep you busy in life, uh, that keep you away from it. Uh, I, I am fearful when you're in your late 50s and 60s and we're hanging out and watching college football that you'll go right back into it. But the utter elation and depression that you have when it comes to college football, right? When-
43:35 Chad
And it could be play to play too.
43:37 Patrick
It can be. So-
43:40 Chad
I, I've done a lot better over the past couple of years just because the past decade has been so hard as a Texas fan.
43:47 Patrick
Yes.
43:47 Chad
Um, my absolute low point wasn't even that first Kansas loss with Charlie Strong. That was more befuddlement. I think my absolute low point was a couple of weeks later when we lost to Kansas State, 'cause I was at your house. Um, we were watching football that, that afternoon. And it was just so bad, I just went and sat down behind the couch on that little trampoline thing that your kids had.
44:13 Patrick
Yeah.
44:13 Chad
Just with my head in my hands. Like, I couldn't even-
44:15 Patrick
Yeah, I, I think-
44:16 Chad
... couldn't even cope with it anymore.
44:18 Patrick
I, I think it's, it's, it's, it's very fun to watch. The, like the text strings, I wish I would, like, keep snapshots of your text strings on, you know, from, like, 10 years ago to, to now when it comes to college football. And Doug has been on those text strings now for probably the same 10 years, right? He's, he's been on that for a while. Um, but it, it is interesting because we-
44:40 Chad
Yeah
44:40 Patrick
... we now have an employee, um, you know, Doug is a Nebraska fan, just to give everybody kind of a... So, uh, Allison went to Tech, right? So she's a Techie. Um, Maria is an Aggie with me, uh, you know, that great school in College Station, Texas. Shout out to College Station, Brian. Uh, you went to that, what do they call that, that, that, uh, burnt orange school, TU?
45:02 Chad
The flagship.
45:03 Patrick
In Austin. The flagship .
45:05 Chad
The flagship school.
45:06 Patrick
Yes. Um, and Michael is a BYU grad. And so, and, uh, what I have learned so far about the BYU grads is, is they are, they are very passionate about sports that they don't win a lot in. Uh, which is, which is very-
45:23 Chad
And they're very gracious about it
45:23 Patrick
... you know, very interesting. But Texas had some issues with Cougars for the last two weeks. You, you know, the, the University of Houston Cougars almost beat you. Uh, really probably should have beaten you except for one bad call.
45:38 Chad
There were a lot of bad calls in that game.
45:39 Patrick
There was one bad call that changed the outcome of that game in my opinion, and Texas took the win because of it. So-
45:47 Chad
Uh, there was a holding call on a conversion play earlier in that drive that did not get called.
45:53 Patrick
I'm sorry. Did you say something there?
45:56 Chad
There were several holding calls. Did you not hear me?
45:58 Patrick
No, I caught you. I caught what you actually said. I'm, I'm acting like the internet stopped there for a minute, but yes, there was the 10, you know, could have been a 10-yard penalty before for the hold that she didn't get the call on. But the spot, man, the spot. Like, that's a te- it was a terrible spot.
46:17 Chad
Uh-huh.
46:17 Patrick
And how does it not get reversed on video review? Like, I, I have no idea how that happens. You had-
46:24 Chad
Oh, well, cry about it.
46:25 Patrick
Yeah, well, it is what it is. So that was week one of the Cougars. So then the whole week I'm like, "You know what? You had some problems with the Cougars, and you're gonna have some problems with the BYU Cougars week two." And you did okay, right? I mean, y- you did fine.
46:40 Chad
If we didn't have the goal line issues, I mean, we would've had 50.
46:44 Patrick
Have you already played Kansas?
46:46 Chad
Yeah, we beat Kansas.
46:47 Patrick
Okay.
46:47 Chad
Unlike, uh, Oklahoma.
46:49 Patrick
Yeah, that other school to the north. So as Houston fans-
46:53 Chad
The one that we can both agree on.
46:54 Patrick
I, I will say, yeah, we'll both agree. As Houston fans call, um, call Dallas-Fort Worth and the, they call it Southern Oklahoma, and then the, the-
47:04 Chad
Ho- honestly, it's not, it's not all that wrong.
47:06 Patrick
Do you know the Rangers-
47:07 Chad
It was a-
47:08 Patrick
... have a picture of the state of Texas-
47:08 Chad
It was shocking to me
47:10 Patrick
... they have a picture of the state of Texas in their stadium that shows all the major cities in the state of Texas. Do you know they just leave Houston off of the picture?
47:17 Chad
That's the kind of pettiness that I appreciate about sports.
47:19 Patrick
Yes. So anyhoo, moving on. Uh, so to get back to my point, so Michael's texting with you during this game 'cause he's a BYU guy and you're a Texas guy, and what, what Michael doesn't know is that you held back because we like Michael and we don't want to lose him as an employee, and so you were not your normal self in that conversation. And I just want the world to know that one day we are going to unleash you in the matchup between Texas and BYU, which isn't really gonna happen anymore, right? 'Cause-
47:49 Chad
Yeah.
47:50 Patrick
Yeah. So-
47:50 Chad
'Cause we're coming to your territory.
47:52 Patrick
You're coming to the SEC, uh, which Chad doesn't know this yet, but he and I are gonna have to sit next to each other at every matchup of A&M versus Texas for the next, like, 10 years. It's just, we're just gonna have to go. I don't, I don't care what you say. We're going.
48:06 Chad
Okay. I mean, if history is any guide, then we will win about 70% of those games, so it's fine with me.
48:11 Patrick
So most recent, if most recent history is any guide, then we will win about half of those games, or a little more than half actually.
48:17 Chad
Well, if current history is our guide, most likely you're gonna be paying Jimbo about a million dollars for that game, and he's going to probably lose it.
48:26 Patrick
There was actually a stat that came out that said Kevin Sumlin had won more games at this point than Jimbo has.
48:30 Chad
Oh, he has, yeah.
48:31 Patrick
So I, I, I'm not, I'm not disagreeing with you.
48:34 Chad
For half the price.
48:34 Patrick
For, for half the price, yeah. So, um, but all that being said, uh, shout out to Kevin Sumlin, got arrested in Florida last week. So I'm not sure if you saw that or not. Uh, he decided-
48:47 Chad
Another reason that we need walkable communities
48:50 Patrick
... he's, he's innocent until proven guilty, but it looks like he was driving while intoxicated. So, um, all that being said-
48:57 Chad
Min- okay, minimum parking requirements at bars makes no logical sense. Go ahead.
49:03 Patrick
Because we're encouraging people to drink-
49:04 Chad
Yes
49:04 Patrick
... at the bar and then drive home-
49:05 Chad
And then drive home, yes
49:05 Patrick
... instead of just Ubering? Yeah. No, I, I would agree with that 100%. Uh, yeah, s- I don't, I don't dis- y- y- minimum parking requirements in retail in general makes no sense.
49:17 Chad
Agreed.
49:17 Patrick
Can we, can we say that out loud?
49:20 Chad
Yeah, or anywhere, but yeah.
49:22 Patrick
Okay.
49:22 Chad
Certainly.
49:23 Patrick
All right. Sorry, I have to get back to this point. I just wanted everybody to know, and I want Michael to hear it on the podcast, that I am going to s- to tell you it is okay to be your normal college football self, and he should be prepared for what that means. It, it, the highs and lows are incredible. The I love football, I love Texas, to the my life is over is amazing, and everybody should experience that who's a friend of Chad. That wraps up, bud.
49:50 Chad
I just, I just do what I can do.
49:53 Patrick
Are you that passionate now about soccer?
49:54 Chad
I just-
49:54 Patrick
Now that you've become a soccer fan?
49:55 Chad
I just live my best life. Um-
49:57 Patrick
Like, are you like psycho FC Dallas and-
50:01 Chad
No, not yet. Soccer is just different.
50:02 Patrick
Okay.
50:02 Chad
And we need to talk about this too on maybe the next pod, um-
50:05 Patrick
Which is two weeks away, folks, FYI.
50:07 Chad
Yes. W- we're, we're legitimately... We have it on the calendar now.
50:11 Patrick
Yes.
50:12 Chad
So this is gonna be a recurring thing, not just, uh, whenever we remember. Um, soccer is just such a different sport that it's a lot of lows, or just, like, not lows, but, like, just kind of calmness-
50:27 Patrick
Mm-hmm
50:27 Chad
... until, like, some kind of random run happens, and it's like, "Oh my God, we're gonna score. No, we didn't score." Right? Um, so like, in baseball, especially in the playoffs, like, every pitch is drama.
50:43 Patrick
Yeah.
50:44 Chad
I- in football, you get to certain parts of the game or certain parts of the field where, you know, like, you can kind of just... The tension builds with every, uh, with every play. It's just not quite the same in soccer. Um, so, so no, you don't really... And maybe that'll change 'cause next week I will be at a Chelsea game, and I have never been to a Premier League game before, and it is an environment that I am looking forward to 'cause it's gonna be insane.
51:11 Patrick
Mm-hmm.
51:12 Chad
Um, we are probably gonna lose because we're playing Manchester City, and we can never beat Manchester City, and we're also not very good this year. Um-
51:19 Patrick
But if you win that game against Man City, that's gonna be outstanding.
51:22 Chad
Oh, it's gonna... I'm... Yeah.
51:24 Patrick
Yeah.
51:24 Chad
Just lose my mind. Just because why not?
51:25 Patrick
But you're gonna have a kid with you, right? Yeah.
51:28 Chad
Yeah. Uh, two older kids will go with us.
51:30 Patrick
Okay. Yeah. So that's gonna, that's gonna be a blast. So are you gonna take them to the pub to celebrate, though, if you win? Gotta go to the pub.
51:36 Chad
You gotta go I think either way.
51:38 Patrick
Yeah. So I'm a, I'm a big fan.
51:39 Chad
Drown your sorrows or-
51:40 Patrick
I'm a big fan of London, man. It's a fun city.
51:43 Chad
I would love to have, like, a pub for my team. Just mosey on down, watch the game with people who are only... Like, we went to, uh, New York, I don't know, 10, 12 years ago, and there was a big Cowboys-Giants game while we were there.
51:58 Patrick
Okay.
51:59 Chad
And so, like, we had to Google and figure out where are the... where's the Cowboys bar, and then go watch the game there.
52:04 Patrick
Do you have a-
52:04 Chad
Because, I mean, in New York-
52:05 Patrick
Do you have a Cheers-
52:06 Chad
You can't-
52:06 Patrick
Do you have a Cheers in your life? Like, do you have, like, when you walk in, they know your name?
52:09 Chad
Uh, do I have a third place? No, there's no third places. If you've seen the s- the, uh, aerial photography, the satellite images of where I live-
52:16 Patrick
Yeah, but you don't have-
52:17 Chad
There's no place that you can just go
52:19 Patrick
... Okay. I d- I have a Cheers in my life. You know what my Cheers is?
52:22 Chad
I don't know if you want me to s-
52:24 Patrick
Yeah, say it out loud.
52:24 Chad
Well-
52:25 Patrick
What's-
52:25 Chad
It's probably Blue Ray's, but it might also be Chipotle.
52:27 Patrick
It's Blue Ray's. No. Oh, Chipotle's my lunch. Uh, they, they all know my name at Chipotle-
52:32 Chad
Yeah
52:32 Patrick
... at lunch. That's been the, uh, new, uh, get, get healthy routine. It includes Chipotle on a daily basis. But, um, no, Blue Ray's, man. Blue Ray's is... That's my spot. I walked in the other day, you know, hanging out, had my kids there, watching a World Series game. It was great. I did not wear blue, by the way. I refuse to wear blue.
52:53 Chad
It's all right. Embrace the hate.
52:54 Patrick
Refuse. Just can't do it. Lowest rated World Series, by the way, in the history of MLB.
52:59 Chad
Yeah. And?
53:01 Patrick
Yeah. I just, I'm just pointing it out. You know? The Astros are actually more popular than the Rangers.
53:06 Chad
No, I think people watch the Astros... First of all, you played the Dodgers, like, two years in a row.
53:12 Patrick
True. Yeah. Well, no.
53:14 Chad
You played Dodgers and Phillies.
53:15 Patrick
No, not two years in a row. Dodgers and Phillies, yeah.
53:17 Chad
Yeah, so, like, those are-
53:17 Patrick
Well, we won against the Dodgers and the Phillies
53:18 Chad
... those are both big markets, as opposed to the Diamondbacks is not as big of a market. They also only won 84 games this season. Both of us lost 100 games last year. Um, but I think that a lot of it is people tuned in to try to, like, hoping that the cheating Astros would lose.
53:36 Patrick
I, I get it, but I'm saying this to all my friends in DFW. It is unacceptable that you have a baseball team that is this good, and you're not putting 30,000 people in the stands on a nightly basis on a weekday. Like, that should happen.
53:48 Chad
I, I'm not sure what the attendance was for the Rangers.
53:49 Patrick
If you wanna be a baseball town... It wasn't... I mean, average attendance is probably less than that. It's probably, like, 25,000.
53:55 Chad
I don't know. I'm not gonna look it up right now.
53:56 Patrick
We can Google that real quick. Yeah, but, like, I, I... We went to a number of Ra- you know, 'cause I'm a huge baseball fan. I still go to Rangers games because it's an opportunity for me to watch professional baseball, and that's fun. Um, and we went to a lot, especially weeknight games, and they're just, they're empty. There's just not a lot of people there. It's not Tampa Bay, like, where five people show up.
54:16 Chad
Yeah, for a playoff game.
54:17 Patrick
Right? Or Oakland, where, like, two people show up, right? So, uh, but, you know, it is what it is. I'm happy for my friends that are Rangers fans, including you, who, by the way, you're a traitor. You were born in Houston.
54:29 Chad
So, so here's the thing that I'm gonna disagree with you on. You don't have to be happy for us
54:35 Patrick
Okay.
54:36 Chad
I am not happy for you when the Astros win. I am not happy for you.
54:41 Patrick
What about when the, what about when the Aggies win?
54:43 Chad
Oh, absolutely not.
54:45 Patrick
So when, when we beat Alabama for the first time, was that like a terrible day for you?
54:49 Chad
Uh, you mean with Johnny Football?
54:51 Patrick
Yeah, with Johnny Football.
54:52 Chad
I was, I, I-
54:53 Patrick
Well, well we beat them, what, last year too, right?
54:55 Chad
I'm pretty sure that I sent you last year... No, you did not beat them last year, you lost. Because you have no offense. And he's Jimbo's-
55:01 Patrick
We've, we beat them at some point during his tenure
55:03 Chad
... Jimbo's play call. I'm like-
55:05 Patrick
Oh, that's right. Yeah
55:06 Chad
... fourth and two at the goal line.
55:07 Patrick
Yeah. Oh.
55:08 Chad
Anyway.
55:10 Patrick
Why'd you remind me of that?
55:11 Chad
When, when Johnny Manziel beat the, uh, Alabama, I think it's like 2012 or something, I remember sending either you and Doug, or I guess maybe just you or my brothers, I sent someone a text and I was like, "Okay, he should win the Heisman." Like, I conceded it. But I wasn't happy for you. I would never be happy when A&M wins. I'll never be hap- like, there was a big debate recently about should Texas fans pull for Oklahoma, as if it really matters. 'Cause like-
55:40 Patrick
Right
55:40 Chad
... if I pull for Oklahoma, it's not gonna help them win or, or lose. But does it benefit Texas if Oklahoma wins out and we, and then we play again in the Big 12 championship, and then we beat them? Does it benefit them to, to beat an undefeated Oklahoma team? And I don't care, I want them to lose every week.
55:57 Patrick
Well, I mean, y- they can't lose again. And that, that will negatively, that will negatively impact at least-
56:01 Chad
I know. I, I want them to lose every single week for the rest of the year. I don't care if they're the best team.
56:05 Patrick
Do we-- are they choosing eight teams for the playoffs this year-
56:07 Chad
What?
56:07 Patrick
... or is it still four?
56:08 Chad
No, four, and then 12 next year.
56:09 Patrick
And 12 next year. See-
56:10 Chad
I tell you what, I s- uh, that is gonna be amazing.
56:13 Patrick
It is gonna be amazing. It, it really is.
56:14 Chad
It's gonna be so cool.
56:15 Patrick
Honest to God truth, it's gonna be so fun. Um, it's gonna be six SEC teams, but that's okay.
56:20 Chad
I know. Well, you're gonna see, like s- you're gonna see a lot of match-ups that you never get to see, and more than just the four current playoff teams. And probably m- different match-ups too, because those bowls, the s- New Years, New Year's six bowls all have, like, conference affiliations.
56:34 Patrick
Yeah.
56:35 Chad
So, um, like I saw some hypothetical brackets for a 12-team, and it had like Alabama playing Oklahoma, and us playing Mississippi State. Um, it did not have you guys on there, um, but it had...
56:51 Patrick
Oh, and Michael, that's just a tidbit of the type of stuff you're gonna get from Chad right there. I'm just gonna throw that out there.
56:56 Chad
So there was no, uh, there was no top 12 bracket for, um, the number of five-star decommitments in this recruiting cycle.
57:04 Patrick
Oh.
57:04 Chad
But I, I do think that it, it... By the way, last thing, absolutely last thing. Did you hear what Lane Kiffin had to say about the Aggies in his presser this week?
57:13 Patrick
No. Lane Kiffin's a-
57:15 Chad
Okay.
57:15 Patrick
W- he's at Ole Miss, right? Okay.
57:19 Chad
Yeah. So he says, "Yeah, it's always interesting to go up against A&M, because, you know, they, they should be a top 10 team with the talent that they have."
57:27 Patrick
Wow. That's a shot at Jimbo Fisher if I've ever heard one, right? So, I mean-
57:33 Chad
I think that, uh, I think that Lane Kiffin is the heir apparent to Mike Leach, except that he's, he's more vindictive.
57:41 Patrick
He, yeah.
57:41 Chad
Leach was just having fun.
57:42 Patrick
Leach was-
57:43 Chad
And Lane Kiffin's kind of a jerk.
57:44 Patrick
Leach was having fun, and sometimes he'd just like would say things, and then be like, "Ooh, my bad. Didn't, didn't know that was gonna go down that way," you know? But, uh, I mean, to be fair, man, Mike Leach was, uh, just an incredible football mind, right? And just the information that he would soak in. Um, there's nothing better than his presser where he talks about the staff member who's about to get married and all the things that they have to get ready for in the marriage. That's one of the greatest Mike Leach pressers.
58:12 Chad
No, the best one, which, the best one is, which I will link to the show notes, is him talking about Halloween candy.
58:19 Patrick
Yeah, we need to go ahead and link that in the show notes.
58:20 Chad
Yeah.
58:20 Patrick
I've seen that one too. It's, it's really good.
58:22 Chad
Yeah.
58:22 Patrick
Uh, man, just what a, what a guy to miss in college football. No longer being there, super sad. But, uh, well, that's it, guys. We're gonna wrap it up. Uh, like we said, we're gonna be back in two weeks on ZacCast. Uh, we're gonna make this more of a regular thing. Chad has officially put it on my calendar. I would probably blame me more than him. Um, but we're gonna get it back, and we're gonna try to do this thing every, uh, at least two weeks. Uh, it could become almost weekly. We could get a little aggressive here as we go, and, uh, throw some shows out there. So-
58:50 Chad
Let's, let's walk before we run.
58:51 Patrick
Let's walk before we run. Well, Chad, Nick Cage in the background, it's great to hang out with you. And, uh, you know, we'll see you next time.
58:59 Chad
See you, Pat.