The Challenge
Growth can be a blessing and a burden, especially when it’s happening faster than the infrastructure meant to support it.
For one city, a long-planned interchange expansion along a major highway corridor was both an opportunity and a question mark. Local leaders knew the project could unlock new commercial and industrial development, but they also recognized that every new acre of growth carries long-term fiscal implications. Would the development generate enough revenue to cover its future costs? How could land use planning ensure the interchange would strengthen, not strain, the city’s finances?
The city turned to our team to help answer these questions before shovels hit the dirt.
The Approach
Our team began with a foundation of data and dialogue. We analyzed conditions within two miles of the interchange. We examined land use patterns, infrastructure costs, and existing site plans to understand both the fiscal and physical landscape. Working closely with city staff and key stakeholders, we built a series of land-use and development scenarios, each reflecting a different vision for the area’s growth.
Then came the fiscal modeling. For each scenario, we estimated revenues (property tax, sales tax, fees) and expenditures (infrastructure maintenance, public safety, utilities) to project long-term net fiscal impacts through buildout and beyond. The model allowed city leaders to test “what if” questions: What if density increased? What if parcel uses shifted toward industrial? What if development timelines changed?
In short, we turned a land-use conversation into a data-backed fiscal playbook.
The Findings
The results confirmed what local experience had already hinted at: not all growth is created equal. While every development scenario showed some economic benefit, only certain land-use patterns produced long-term fiscal sustainability.
Industrial and commercial uses along the corridor generated the most consistent positive returns, while low-intensity or auto-oriented retail patterns added service costs faster than revenues. In one scenario, the difference between the most and least efficient land-use mix amounted to millions in cumulative fiscal impact over time.
By quantifying these tradeoffs, the city could move beyond intuition and make planning decisions grounded in evidence.
The Impact
The study gave the city a clear, defensible framework for evaluating future development near the interchange. The model’s findings informed land-use planning, capital improvement prioritization, and annexation strategy, all while providing a transparent way to explain the fiscal realities of growth to elected officials and residents.
Just as importantly, the process built internal capacity. City staff now have a calibrated model they can update as conditions evolve, making it a living tool rather than a one-time report.
The Takeaway
Infrastructure decisions shape communities for generations, and getting them right requires more than engineering. It requires fiscal foresight.
By combining stakeholder engagement with rigorous scenario modeling, this project helped a growing city see how development patterns translate into fiscal outcomes. The result was a roadmap for sustainable growth, one that balances opportunity with responsibility, and ambition with arithmetic.