ZacTax Consulting Services

Budget with Confidence, Not Guesswork

Our sales tax forecasting service transforms your ZacTax data into probabilistic revenue projections. Know not just what to expect, but how confident you can be in those expectations.

Every Budget Season, the Same Question

How much sales tax revenue should we project? Too conservative and you leave money on the table. Too aggressive and you're scrambling mid-year. What if you could answer that question with data instead of intuition?

The Budget Uncertainty Problem

Sound familiar? These challenges plague finance teams every budget cycle.

"What Number Do We Use?"

Council wants a revenue projection. You have last year's actuals, a gut feeling about growth, and pressure to be accurate. No clear methodology to defend your number.

New Developments Are Wild Cards

A major retailer is coming, maybe. Or that new mixed-use development might open in Q3. How do you factor in revenue that might or might not materialize?

No Measure of Confidence

You present a single number, but have no way to communicate the uncertainty. Is there a 50% chance you hit it? 90%? The budget process treats projections as certainties.

The Solution

Forecasting That Speaks in Probabilities

Our consulting service turns your ZacTax data into actionable budget intelligence. Instead of one number, you get a range of outcomes with associated probabilities.

Data-Driven Projections

We analyze your historical collections by industry, identify patterns, and build forecasts grounded in your actual data—not generic assumptions.

Probability Ranges

Know the likelihood of hitting different revenue levels. "There's a 75% chance we'll collect at least $X" is more useful than a single point estimate.

Development Integration

New businesses and developments are modeled with their own uncertainty. If the Walmart might open in Q2 or Q4, the forecast reflects that timing risk.

How It Works

From Your Data to Budget-Ready Projections

We handle the analysis. You get the answers.

1

Share Your Context

Tell us about upcoming developments, incentive agreements, and anything else that might affect future collections. We pull the rest from ZacTax.

2

We Analyze and Model

Our team examines industry trends, adjusts for one-time events, and builds prediction ranges for each month of your forecast window.

3

Run the Simulations

We run thousands of scenarios to produce a distribution of possible outcomes—not just best-case or worst-case, but the full probability spectrum.

4

Deliver Budget Intelligence

You receive a clear report and interactive spreadsheet. Pick a budget number and instantly see the probability of achieving it.

What You Receive

Two Deliverables, Complete Budget Clarity

Everything you need to present a defensible, data-backed revenue projection.

Narrative Report

A clear explanation of the methodology, key findings, and budget implications—written for decision-makers, not statisticians.

  • Methodology overview in plain language
  • Key results with probability context
  • Risk factors and assumptions
  • Recommended budget ranges

Interactive Spreadsheet

Monthly projections with probability bands, fiscal year rollups, and a budget selection tool that answers "what are the odds we hit this number?"

  • Monthly forecast by industry
  • Current FY remainder + Budget FY totals
  • Budget selection probability calculator
  • Excel format for easy integration

The Budget Selection Tool

Pick a Number. See the Odds.

The most powerful part of the deliverable is deceptively simple: enter any budget amount, and instantly see the probability your actual collections will meet or exceed it. Use it to find the sweet spot between conservative and aggressive, or to quantify the risk of the number council is pushing for.

  • Instant probability calculations
  • Compare multiple budget scenarios
  • Communicate uncertainty to stakeholders
  • Defend your recommendation with data

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Budget selection tool showing probability of reaching different revenue targets

"For years, our budget projections were educated guesses. Now I can tell council there's an 85% chance we'll hit our target, and I have the analysis to back it up. Last year we came within 2% of our median projection."

Finance Director, Texas Municipality

This city has used ZacTax forecasting for three consecutive budget cycles, improving projection accuracy each year as the model incorporates more historical data.

Common Scenarios

When Forecasting Delivers the Most Value

Clients find the service especially valuable in these situations.

Major Development Pipeline

Multiple projects in various stages of completion? We model each with appropriate timing and revenue uncertainty.

Volatile Industries

Heavy reliance on oil & gas, tourism, or other cyclical industries? Wider prediction intervals capture that uncertainty honestly.

Post-Pandemic Recovery

Historical patterns disrupted? We identify which trends have normalized and which industries are still finding their new baseline.

The Difference

Traditional Budgeting vs. Probabilistic Forecasting

See how data-driven forecasting changes the budget conversation.

Capability Traditional Approach With ZacTax Forecasting
Revenue projection Single point estimate Probability distribution
New development impact Best guess timing and revenue Range-based modeling
Confidence level Unstated / implicit Explicit probability
Budget defense "This is our best estimate" "There's X% chance of reaching this"
Industry-level insight Aggregate growth assumption Per-industry forecast ranges

FAQ

Questions About the Forecasting Service

How much historical data do you need?
Ideally 3-4 years of monthly collections data, which you already have in ZacTax. More history generally produces better forecasts, but we can work with as little as 2 years if needed.
What if we have unusual years in our history (COVID, major closures, etc.)?
We explicitly identify and adjust for one-time events and anomalies. Our pre-forecast adjustments ensure unusual years don't distort your projections.
How far out can you forecast?
We forecast the remainder of your current fiscal year plus the entire following fiscal year (your "budget year"). This typically covers 14-18 months depending on when you engage us.
Can we update the forecast if circumstances change?
Yes. If a major development timeline shifts or new information emerges, we can re-run the analysis with updated assumptions. Ask about our update packages.
What do we need to provide?
Just two things: a list of known upcoming developments (with expected timing and revenue if you have estimates), and any active incentive agreements that affect collections. We pull everything else from your ZacTax account.

Ready for Data-Driven Budgeting?

Request a quote and we'll show you how probabilistic forecasting can transform your budget process. We'll use your actual ZacTax data to demonstrate the approach.

Or call us at 817-725-7241 | Email hey@zactax.com